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this post was submitted on 11 Mar 2025
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For Darwin sake, everybody can read this, right?
First Trump showed Ukraine that he can make Ukraine lose without US support. This brought them to the table again.
Now he aims to show Russia that they can’t win when Ukraine has US support. Trump will support Ukraine with new weapons and even more intel, possibly with permissions to use US weapons in deeper strike missions. This coincides with Trump getting Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire position (that Trump still doesn’t understand Russia will never agree to).
This will go on for 4-6 weeks, then Trump will realise “math is hard, yo” and properly give up on an attempt, blaming Russia, Ukraine and/or the EU.
Then by end of 2025 the recent Trump induced EU panic that caused Europe to react will have created a rapid expansion of European capability and will. Then the US will exit and the war will go on for another couple of years.
You make some good points, but I don't draw the same conclusion. You're ascribing agency and competence to Trump, which we have no evidence for. This is just him jerking Zelenskyy around again.
Trump is playing "bully pocker", his goal is to look good to his bases, whoever that might be at the moment. It's the game that has worked for him his whole life, and he's good at it.
What he doesn't realize, is the world stage is an agreements game, based on trust and good faith, where others can join forces and render anyone at the table irrelevant. He's trying to bully everyone into doing what he wants like he was in a single-country sandbox, by playing his strong economy and military "cards" in a carrot+stick teasing approach... without realizing those same "cards" are also based on trust and good faith. Both of which he's been losing at an increasing rate.
I don't think he will stop teasing and gaslighting everyone around, he doesn't know how to do anything else. He will just run the US presidency into the ground, while everyone increasingly ignores him.
I’m ascribing agency and competency to the military planners and to Rubio. Trump wouldn’t know which end of a lollipop to lick.
lmao