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submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by silence7@slrpnk.net to c/climate@slrpnk.net
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[-] relianceschool@slrpnk.net 28 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Agreed. I'm getting tired of these pencil-pusher reports implying that "the economy" is going to keep chugging along at a reduced rate, as if we can just shuffle around our stock portfolios and weather the storm.

The "Planetary Solvency" report by IFoA is one of the first mainstream papers that's taking a sober look at the climate crisis. If we hit 2°C by 2050, they're seeing a significant likelihood of:

  • 2 billion deaths
  • High number of climate tipping points triggered, partial tipping cascade.
  • Breakdown of some critical ecosystem services and Earth systems.
  • Major extinction events in multiple geographies.
  • Ocean circulation severely impacted.
  • Severe socio-political fragmentation in many regions, low lying regions lost.
  • Heat and water stress drive involuntary mass migration of billions.
  • Catastrophic mortality events from disease, malnutrition, thirst and conflict.

I don't even want to think about 3°C and 4°C scenarios.

this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2025
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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