66
Mainstreet polling, April 13
(lemmy.ca)
| Party Name | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 183 | +23 | 43.6% | +11% | 70.5% | 15.7% |
| Conservative | 138 | +19 | 43.2% | +9.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Bloc | 14 | -18 | 3.5% | -4.1% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 6 | -19 | 6.2% | -11.6% | N/A | N/A |
As far as I remember, during the BC provincial elections in the fall, Mainstreet consistently indicated the BC United (conservative) party was around 5 points ahead of the NDP in polling.
The others generally showed it to be a dead heat.
In the end, the NDP won a very close race and Mainstreet was shown to be the one overrepresenting conservative vote intentions as compared to the other pollsters.
Not sure what the differences were in their methodology, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the same thing going on here.