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A Carney disaster scenario shower thought (lemmy.ca)

submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by avidamoeba@lemmy.ca to c/canada@lemmy.ca

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I did support Carney and I hope he does good things, and I don't think the following scenario would occur but I realize this belief is entirely based on my judgement of Carney's character which could be wrong.

I was thinking about the proposed gas pipeline to the east coast. If Carney hopes to be re-elected, he can't ram a pipeline through Quebec using emergency powers if such exist. Or he'd lose his seats in QC. Instead he's gotta give significant concessions to QC, like ownership, high royalties, etc. Stuff that he and Blanchet can sell to the Quebecers. I think this is certainly possible for a gas pipeline.

But then the following disaster scenario occurred to me. He likely has significant Brookfield investments in that blind trust. He likely has a seat open on that board whenever he quits public service. What if he uses emergency powers to ram a whole bunch of infrastructure, through P3s, where the private partner retains ownership, and the partner is Brookfield. Do as many of those as possible, get kicked out of office and sit on Brookfield's board, that much richer, while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC fascism.

Thoughts?

Edit: Thanks for wading into my election PTSD nightmare!

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[-] avidamoeba@lemmy.ca 1 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Yeah, most of that makes sense. Thanks!

while we get saddled with an even angrier and vindicated CPC

This one displays a clear logical error - that of non sequiturs and false dichotomy. It doesn’t automatically follow that, even if all of the above happened, that the CPC would be able to follow and push its current agenda. What if sympathy for Quebec after all this is so strong that PQ ends up with the leading role in a new coalition? Or former Liberals flee to the NDP, reviving it and granting it a majority?

I'm thinking about this as with the rest of the scenario inductively, and omitting some assumptions. All of what you suggest are plausible/likely possibilities, for sure. What makes me think that a strong CPC outcome is likely is that there was data from the weekend showing that CPC without a leader handily sweeps the election. So I assume they change PP for someone more likeable which puts them in a much stronger position, therefore likely to win if the Carney gov't doesn't execute well.

[-] abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.us 2 points 3 months ago

What makes me think that a strong CPC outcome is likely is that there was data from the weekend showing that CPC without a leader handily sweeps the election. So I assume they change PP for someone more likeable which puts them in a much stronger position, therefore likely to win if the Carney gov’t doesn’t execute well.

That's fair. But my point was that the new person they swap in could be someone who remakes the CPC into a more centrist or even leftist party. (Perhaps even someone who was a former Liberal Party member.) Not saying that's likely, just that it's another possibility that prevents the disaster scenario... (as opposed to someone like Danielle Smith taking the reins, which the disaster scenario requires).