I think it's prudent to worry about both.

The tyrannical states may have more reach and can choose to either move decisively or boil the frogs slowly using their near unlimited access to funding and try to cloak themselves in some manner of unearned legitimacy that a disturbing portion of the population goes along with.

But if a violent person shows up demanding your property, it really only matters what affiliation they claim if you and your property survive the altercation intact. If you do, then your issue becomes with things like recourse, courts and so on. In the moment of conflict, the group the thug claims to be a member of, if any, matters very little.