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Large Language Model Performance Doubles Every 7 Months (spectrum.ieee.org)
submitted 2 weeks ago by flango@lemmy.eco.br to c/technology@lemmy.world
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By 2030, AI will greatly outperform humans in some complex intellectual tasks. Discover how LLMs are doubling their capabilities every seven months.

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[-] Womble@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

That said, exponentials don’t exist in the real world, we’re just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.

Yes, but the tricky thing is we have no idea when the seemingly exponential growth will flip over into the plateuing phase. We could be there already or it could be another 30 years.

For comparison Moores law is almost certainly a sigmoid too, but weve been seeing exponential growth for 50 years now.

[-] squaresinger@lemmy.world 1 points 2 weeks ago

Moore's law hasn't been exponential for ~15 years now.

this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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