this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2025
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By not handling it, as we have seen from the two or three near misses that the Republic and its civilian rule had in the last fifteen years. More below.
The near coup that Bolsonaro botched didn't come out of the blue sky. The whole spiraling debacle that was the end of the Rousseff presidency, the Weimar speedrun that was the Temer presidency, and the rise of the far right all taught us that the Brazilian state apparatus is coopted at every single level. Any top down attempt to move the country away from the imperial order will be corroded from within. The Judiciary did, with Operation Car Wash. The legislature did, with their "coalition presidentialism" (which was a spin-off of Lula's attempt to bribe the DotB from within, the mensalão).
Ultimately, the army is the failsafe: the last tool for the owner class to course correct. But just that. One more tool. In every instance, the military coups failed not because of the military's love of civilian presidential democracy, or because of any secret leaning towards the left. It failed because the military was disunited. The internal neoliberal faction decided that the juice wasn't worth the squeeze; it wasn't worth it to topple the system because the threat to the bourgeoisie wasn't real. And they were right. Lula's internal policy swing to collaborationism and his progression towards center-right fiscal conservatism is both proof and consequence. He knows the system will not allow him to change it, and being a reformist, he simply takes the system as far as it'll willingly go.
Ultimately, that is how Lula deals with the army: by presenting himself as an inoffensive alternative among the bourgeoisie's buffet of stooges. His gentle guiding of the apparatus to the left here and there is less disruptive to the owner class than the radical, coup prone, christofascist adjacent far-right project. Thus, he is allowed to stay. And Brazil gets another four year round of bourgeois electoralism.
TLDR: Blanquism doesn't work. Changing the person on top doesn't change the people in real power. True change only comes from revolution.