If we're lucky, maybe there's a sweet spot where new production for RAM ramps up just as the AI companies run out of money and cancel their orders, and then there's suddenly a huge surplus of RAM that they need to unload in a hurry lol.

Gamers Nexus made a video recently where they were discussing a new Chinese company/manufacturer in the RAM game. It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.

For your second point/option: I agree something like this will happen first. But I don’t know if it will be a cancellation on all “fronts.” Microsoft’s CEO stated they HAVE the (DIM) RAM, but they DON’T have the GPU’s. So Nvidia is behind on manufacturing, but Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have actually got the stock, they’re just ONLY selling to corporations right now (or arbitrarily inflating prices for consumers to meet the inflated price they’re selling to corporations who already have more than they need, but refuse to stop buying).

3. Technology breakthrough: Manufacturing more ram for less money.

The Chinese could do some coordinated push to take marketshare if they have state backing and are willing to accept medium term losses.

I expect that China is likely investing in 1 due to industrial policy. When 2 happens, it is going to collapse the industry.

It will likely be a combination of both. As prices increase, new fabs become more financially lucrative and viable. Demand will also fall as the bubble bursts, but likely will not go back to that it was either.

Agreed. They are building new factories now that will come online in several years