Comparative math is pretty good. I correctly estimated the IOF deaths in Gaza+Lebanon up to mid-2025 by just extrapolating published data (it was some 3000 dead if I'm not mistaken, then you times 3 for wounded). IOF maintained some abysmally low number like 150 for 3 years. Then shortly after my piece they admitted the number, and lo and behold, it was 3000. But it wasn't anything special lol, it was easy enough just using public resources like the haaretz article on the hospital casualties before censorship, and the resistance's own numbers extrapolated in time, which assumed steady operations every day.