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submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

(credit to RomCom1989 for the title)

A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of an Iranian soldier exulting in the launch of a ballistic missile aimed towards the imperialists.


short summary this week: US doing pretty bad and Iran doing pretty good all things considered, Strait of Hormuz is closed and will almost certainly remain so until the end of the war, Trump has no idea what to do, global economic crisis from strait closure is basically guaranteed at this point but who will ultimately benefit most and who will ultimately lose most is still up in the air.

longish summary is below in the spoiler tags

longish summary

While there are still major debates raging about how badly things are actually going right now and what the post-conflict map may look like, as we blaze past the two week mark on this conflict, it's becoming ever more obvious to almost everybody involved that this war is not going according to plan, if there ever was one. US airstrikes are, from what I can best determine, still mostly done with relatively less powerful (but still very dangerous!) and much less plentiful standoff munitions launched from bombers, though certain border and coastal areas are being struck with more powerful and more plentiful short-range guided bombs. This indicates that Iranian air defense is still sufficiently functional throughout most of Iran that the kinds of true carpet bombing done against Korea and Vietnam in the past (and Gaza very recently) is still too risky, though their airspace is still very much under assault, as we appear to have images of small groups of Western fighters breaching relatively deep into the country. Under some kind of Iranian pressure (drones? missiles? speedboats?) one aircraft carrier has retreated to a thousand kilometers from Iran, hiding behind the mountains of Oman; the other is sitting in the Red Sea, rather pointedly out of range of Yemen. As such, the ranges that Western aircraft must travel to bombard Iran is increasing, which reduces their frequency and increases strain on maintenance and logistics in the medium and long term.

While there is tons to say about the current social, economic, and military state of Iran, I don't think I have a reliable enough picture to give a good summary beyond "they aren't close to defeat or regime change". What has instead captured much of the world's attention is the continuing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has inspired some of the most delusional statements I have seen so far in my life, which is sincerely a profound achievement. For those out of the loop: the strait is currently closed to all shipping except those going to very particular countries (I've seen China and Bangladesh mentioned, and apparently India is in the process of working something out and may succeed or fail). This is because most ships are not risking the trip due to the ~20 tankers and container ships that Iran has already struck and disabled in the strait and in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the threat from Iran's military to Navy ships is such that attempting to create a convoy to guide tankers through it is suicidal to both the Navy and merchant ships. Right now it cannot be done, and it very well might be the case that it could never be done, simply due to the combination of Iran's naval forces (hundreds, perhaps thousands, of armed, specialized speedboats designed for exactly this purpose), their drones (in the tens of thousands), their torpedoes, and if all else fails, their naval mines.

The Western reaction to this has been so moronic that it has almost integer underflowed into being philosophical: what does it truly mean for a passage to be "closed"? Has Iran truly "closed" the strait, or is the risk of traversing it simply too high for these cowardly sailors (who, for some strange reason, seem to care about their "lives" and "families")? How is it possible for Iran to have closed the strait if, according to the West, Iran's military has been totally obliterated? All these questions and more plague the minds of those who cannot accept the now-proven fact that there are indeed military forces on this planet that the US Navy with all its aircraft carriers and destroyers and submarines cannot defeat; and one of those minds is, rather hilariously, Trump himself. His thrice-daily positive affirmations that Iran has been defeated are taking on an increasingly deranged and almost pitiable tone; the lamentations of a man who has finally found a situation where him merely stating that something is true is insufficient to change the situation one iota. Despite stating that some kind of naval compact or alliance is being established to protect shipping, every Western country so far - from the UK, to France, to Japan, to Australia - has publicly stated that they will not risk their ships to do so. All this as the continued blockade yet further guarantees a worldwide energy, production, transportation, and food crisis that will have major global ramifications for at least the rest of the decade and almost certainly beyond.

If the anti-imperialists play their cards right, the US could lose much from this crisis, and others, like China and Russia, could gain a great deal. To quote Nia Frome (co-founder of Red Sails): "An effective Marxist has to be enough of an accelerationist/pervert to treat the obviously bad things that are going to happen as the political opportunities they are."


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 65 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

https://archive.ph/qVFQf

Missile Stock of French Rafales Deployed In U.A.E. Depleting Rapidly

High pace of interceptions against Iranian-made drones reduces MICA missile inventory used by Rafale jets in U.A.E.

more

France is reportedly assessing the rapid depletion of air-to-air missiles used by Rafale fighter jets deployed in the U.A.E. during operations against Iranian-made drones and cruise missiles. According to the French newspaper La Tribune, intensive interception missions carried out in recent weeks have significantly reduced available stocks of MICA air-to-air missiles used by Rafale aircraft. French military aircraft have been participating in the defense of the U.A.E. since the regional conflict began on February 28. The deployment operates under a defense agreement between Paris and Abu Dhabi that allows France to maintain a permanent presence at Al Dhafra Air Base. Since 2016, the French presence at the base included six Rafale fighter jets. At the request of the Emiratis, the contingent was reinforced with six additional aircraft on March 4. In recent weeks, Rafale aircraft reportedly intercepted dozens of Iranian-made drones, including Shaheds, and cruise missiles using MBDA MICA missiles.

The situation has been aggravated by previous supply limitations and production delays affecting the missile program. According to La Tribune, deliveries of previously ordered MICA missiles from MBDA’s facility in Selles-Saint-Denis have been delayed by around two years. The issue has reportedly created pressure within the French defense establishment, with disagreements emerging between the General Staff and the General Directorate of Armaments, as well as between the Ministry of the Armed Forces and MBDA. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has reportedly ordered a crisis meeting involving representatives from the General Staff, the General Directorate of Armaments, the Ministry of the Armed Forces, and MBDA to discuss possible solutions. Officials are also examining alternative weapon options to sustain air defense operations during prolonged interception missions.

One option under consideration is the older R550 Magic 2 missile. Although it was withdrawn from French service in 2020, some remaining stocks have not been destroyed. The missile is currently used on Dassault Mirage 2000-5F jets supplied by France to Ukraine against Russian Shahed drones. The missile also remains in service in several countries. Greece uses it on Mirage 2000 aircraft, while Morocco operates it on Mirage F1 fighters. Romania previously used the missile on MiG-21 LanceR aircraft before retiring them in 2023. Reports indicate that countries including Peru and Brazil may also maintain stockpiles. French defense planners are also examining longer-term responses to the increasing use of low-cost drones in combat. A future upgrade of the Rafale fighter jet, known as the Rafale F5 standard, is expected to include lightweight guided missiles carried in multi-tube launchers designed to counter drone threats. The concept, unveiled during the Paris Air Show 2025, includes guided 68 mm rockets. The Rafale F5 configuration is currently planned to enter service around 2035.

peltier-laugh

[-] SwitchyandWitchy@hexbear.net 22 points 1 month ago

I'm speechless, they're shooting down drones with MICAs??? Those are very expensive missiles (I've seen numbers all over the places but all seem to agree it's upwards of $1M per missile) and are close to the highest levels of overkill for shooting down drones that I can imagine. These are mean to be used against high value targets like fighter jets, bombers, tankers, and AWACS planes. Not little $20k (less than that apparently) drones.

[-] coolusername@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

on my tiktok feed i saw chinese factories advertising that they're making shaheds and tunnel boring equipment to ship to iran
i thanked them for their service

[-] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago

maybe the world will be more peaceful after a significant amount of major powers' armaments are burnt up

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 4 points 1 month ago

France apparently just doesn't have an APKWS equivalent. They're working on one, called the SYROCOT (I assume that's what the "lightweight guided missiles carried in multi-tube launchers" for the Rafale F5 in the article is in reference to), but I guess it hasn't been deployed yet.

And this is, you know, four years into the Ukraine war having demonstrated the utility of drones and the trouble with how much it costs to shoot them down. But NATO militaries are just committed to sticking their heads in the sand and not learning any lessons.

[-] SwitchyandWitchy@hexbear.net 3 points 1 month ago

Do you know if any countries other than US have developed their own APKWS equivalent? I'd think that with all the drone shenanigans that's been going on for the past few years would've demonstrated the need for a low cost and low performance A2A system like this.

[-] Tervell@hexbear.net 3 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Not sure, but I think the focus on air-launched missiles for drone interception is a very NATO-specific thing - most countries simply don't have sufficiently large airforces to rely on having a whole bunch of planes flying around on patrol at all times, waiting to shoot off missiles. Russia I think mostly relies on ground systems and jamming, and I think there have been some recent developments into interceptor drones (so, using special drones to hunt other drones). China has guided models of the Fire Snake, but I'm not sure how widely they're deploying them.

[-] SwitchyandWitchy@hexbear.net 2 points 1 month ago

Thanks! I'm not sure how much the fire snake can maneuver but it otherwise sounds like a slightly larger, longer range version.

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this post was submitted on 16 Mar 2026
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