A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iranian missiles in one of their many fortified underground facilities. I sincerely hope this isn't AI generated, because I'm very wary of posting footage of explosions or combat and having it later turn out to be fake.

Now that the initial shock of the war's beginning is over and there's a meaningful dataset to analyze, the takes from the many hundreds of Geopolitics Understanders are flying in, with predictably extreme variance about how long they predict this war to last and who will ultimately be the victor - and, indeed, what victory even looks like for either side. There are some who are already toasting to their side's victory, but most serious analysts seem to believe that if there isn't any negotiations, and it's just attrition to the death, then it's gonna be a long war (months or even years), and then, depending on the analyst, either the US or Iran then concedes defeat.

All of these takes are being informed by quite possibly the worst information environment yet conceived by humanity. There's the usual stuff: falsehoods, lying by omission, wild exaggerations, state propaganda, doctored videos, masses of bots boosting certain narratives, etc - but now also easily accessible AI which creates images and videos that can be quite convincing unless further inspected by tools online, and people claiming that some non-AI videos were made with AI. On top of all of that, censorship across the Middle East is now in full effect, spawning arguments about whether Iran's strikes have actually decreased in intensity (and if they have, then why), or if we just aren't seeing them as much on social media anymore. Scant footage here and there confirms that strikes are still happening, but I suspect that most of the evidence of further damage to Western facilities will either be satellite imagery or indirect indicators like rescue crews gathering in certain areas, as well as the he-said-she-said of official statements by either side. Given the West's utter lack of reliability with reporting... well, pretty much everything, but especially the Ukraine War, I know which side I'm predisposed to believe, but obviously Iran's government generally isn't going to report successful strikes by Western forces for a myriad reasons.

However, the military conflict is being gradually eclipsed in importance by the growing likelihood of a global economic crisis of massive proportions. A very large proportion of the fuel that keeps the world running is now not moving, and may remain so for weeks or months. Some are even predicting that 2026 will be the year of the biggest energy crisis in world history, dwarfing the crisis of 1973, as countries around the world begin to restrict oil and gas exports and tap into limited reserves. In such a situation, Iran clearly holds all the cards, because even if the US eventually achieves air supremacy, it is still relatively trivial to fire cheap drones en masse at tankers in the strait and at oil facilities throughout the Gulf. Assuming that Iran and the US do not negotiate, then even if the US eventually somehow wins and can reopen the strait within a few months, the global economic and political situation may be so degraded that the victory will be pyrrhic.

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Image is sourced from this article depicting the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit, which took place at the same time as the 47th ASEAN Summit.

Last week concluded the 47th summit of ASEAN in Malaysia as well as a swathe of concurrent summits surrounding ASEAN. For those unfamiliar, formally, China is not a member of ASEAN, but is part of the ASEAN Plus Three (as part of the "Three", alongside Japan and Occupied Southern Korea). And while not really ASEAN, there is also a yet wider organization, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which tacks on Australia and New Zealand to the group of countries that are currently in ASEAN (which is the single largest trade bloc on the planet). At the summit, Timor-Leste was officially introduced into ASEAN, making it the 11th country to do and the first since Cambodia in 1999.

Many important figures throughout Asia, as well as Trump, Ramaphosa, and Lula, attended the event. As you can imagine, Trump's appearance was not exactly positive - signing four rather coerced bilateral deals there, including with Malaysia, which forced those countries to buy American goods in exchange for certain exemptions from Trump's high tariff regime. The US is currently in a bit of a panic due to China restricting access to rare earths, a critical component of many weapons technologies (and electronics in general) and is looking around for countries to help supply them. After the summit, the US and China signed a deal related to tariffs and rare earths, but it seems very unlikely that this is the end of the saga; the US politically, economically, and militarily cannot tolerate China's existence as a sovereign actor and will try to overcome them until the American Empire topples.

Meanwhile, China did as they ordinarily do, and urged higher regional integration and trade without high tariffs, as well as adherence to the Global Governance Initiative (which, as we here never tire of noting, is an interesting thing to try and encourage while the US only more feverishly violates the sovereignty of nations everywhere). One hopes they're supplying a bit more than just speeches to Venezuela, Cuba, and beyond, as the US prepares to start bombing.

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Image is sourced from this article.

Those who were around in the early days of the news megathread may remember Pedro Castillo, the left-leaning leader of Peru who was deposed in December 2022. He was replaced by Dina Boluarte, the first woman to be President of Peru, who described herself as a progressive but afterwards routinely sided with Peruvian conservatives and American interests. To say she was unpopular is an understatement of titanic proportions - she descended to such lows that she was, at one point, the single most unpopular leader on the planet. As with most deeply unpopular leaders that side with the West, she kept power for a bafflingly long time.

However, on October 10th, after a period of protests against the government, she was impeached and removed by Peru's Congress in a unanimous vote. José Jerí was sworn in as the new President, who was previously the President of the Congress and is a member of a centrist Peruvian party. The government is trying the classic strategy: keep doing the same thing as before, and sacrifice an unpopular figure - here, Boluarte - in the hopes that this appeases the crowd.

Is this strategy working? It doesn't really seem to be - protests are not only continuing, but strengthening, as it is clear that neoliberalism will not reformed and the brutality by police will not stop (there was very recently a high-profile case in which a musician, Mauricio Ruiz, was murdered). Controversies surrounding Jerí, including allegations of SA, are already being reported. If Jerí is deposed, the next person in line to try their hand at ruling will be the former army general Roberto Chiabra, who would be the ninth President in less than a decade.

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Image is from this article, showing a march by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Youth. The preamble's information came from a few sources, such as here, here, and here.

Over the last few weeks, pressure on Venezuela from the US has mounted as their newest proxy, Gonzalez, lost the election to Maduro. The Trump administration now alleges that Maduro is the mastermind behind the "Cartel of Suns," raised the bounty on Maduro's head from $25 million to $50 million, and is working to deploy troops and naval assets to the region.

While I would not consider myself an expert, I believe an explicit boots-on-the-ground campaign by the US in Venezuela would be, at best, implausible, though the administration has not explicitly denied it (and even if it did deny it, denials by the US are merely confirmations that are being delayed). What seems much more likely is an intensification of a subversive campaign against Venezuela which seeks to further isolate it, with intelligence from the US given to whatever groups and individuals exist inside the country. There are certainly some parallels in regard to recent US belligerence towards Mexico, with both countries being implicitly or explicitly threatened with military force under the guise of "preventing drug trafficking" - and, of course, spreading drugs is one of America's greatest specialities.

Will this work? I don't know, though I am optimistic about Venezuela's chances. The Venezuelan government does seem to be taking this threat with a refreshing degree of seriousness - with over 4 million militia members being activated across the country as of August 18th, as well as a call from Maduro to the armed forces to be on high alert. The socialist youth of Venezuela are being mobilized in defense of the revolution.

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Palestinian Factions Sign Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity 2024-07-23 18:49

On July 23, 2024, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi attended in Beijing the closing ceremony of the reconciliation talks of Palestinian factions and witnessed the signing of the Beijing Declaration on Ending Division and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity by 14 Palestinian factions.

In his remarks, Wang Yi noted that since entering the new era, President Xi Jinping has put forward proposals and propositions on addressing the Palestinian question, contributing Chinese wisdom and solution for addressing the question. Now, 14 Palestinian factions are gathering in Beijing with the greater good of their nation in mind. This is an important historical moment in the Palestinian liberation cause. China commends the reconciliation efforts made by all the factions, and congratulates them on the success of the Beijing dialogue and the signing of the Beijing Declaration.

Wang Yi pointed out that only when Palestinian factions speak as one can the voice of justice be loud and clear, and only when they join hands and march forward shoulder to shoulder can they succeed in their national liberation cause. The most important consensus from the Beijing talks is to achieve the reconciliation and unity among the 14 factions; the core outcome is the affirmation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people; the biggest highlight is the agreement on establishing an interim government of national reconciliation focusing on the post-conflict reconstruction of Gaza; and the strongest call is for truly establishing an independent State of Palestine in accordance with relevant U.N. resolutions. The key to the Palestinian reconciliation process is to bolster confidence, keep to the right direction, and make incremental progress. Only by making continuous efforts to build consensus and put it into practice can the reconciliation process yield more and more substantive progress and greater unity. Reconciliation is the internal affair of Palestinian factions, and cannot happen without international support. On the path toward reconciliation, China shares the same direction and destination with Arab and Islamic countries.

Wang Yi noted that the Palestinian question is at the core of the Middle East issue. China never has any selfish interests on the Palestinian question. China was among the first countries to recognize the PLO and the State of Palestine. China all along firmly supports the Palestinian people in restoring their legitimate national rights. We value fairness and advocate for justice. At present, the Gaza conflict drags on, its spillovers continue to spread, and multiple regional conflicts are interconnected. To help get out of the current conflict and predicament, China proposes a three-step initiative:

The first step is to achieve comprehensive, lasting and sustainable ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as soon as possible, and ensure access to humanitarian aid and rescue on the ground. The international community should build more synergy for ending the hostilities and establishing a ceasefire.

The second step is to make joint efforts toward post-conflict governance of Gaza under the principle of “Palestinians governing Palestine.” Gaza is an inseparable, integral part of Palestine. Restarting post-conflict reconstruction as soon as possible is an urgent priority. The international community needs to support Palestinian factions in establishing an interim national consensus government and realizing effective management of Gaza and the West Bank.

The third step is to help Palestine become a full member state of the U.N. and get down to implementing the two-State solution. It is important to support the convening of a broad-based, more authoritative, and more effective international peace conference to work out a timetable and road map for the two-State solution.

Ceasefire and humanitarian rescue are pressing priorities. “Palestinians governing Palestine” is the basic principle for the post-conflict governance of Gaza. The two-State solution is the fundamental way forward. The international community should support the parties in taking the three steps in real earnest.

Wang Yi noted that intra-Palestinian reconciliation will bring hope and a future to the Palestinian people. It is an important step toward resolving the Palestinian question and achieving peace and stability in the Middle East. Unwavering efforts must be continually made in this direction. China sincerely hopes that Palestinian factions will achieve reconciliation and, on that basis, realize independent statehood at an early date. We will strengthen communication and coordination with the relevant parties and make joint efforts for the implementation of the Beijing Declaration.

Head of the Fatah delegation Mr. Mahmoud al-Aloul and head of the Hamas delegation Mr. Musa Abu Marzouk delivered remarks on behalf of the Palestinian factions. They noted that China holds an important place in the heart of Palestinian people, and expressed sincere appreciation for President Xi Jinping and China’s unchanging, firm support and selfless assistance to Palestine over a long period of time. They spoke highly of China’s acting as a responsible major country and upholding justice for Palestine in international fora. They expressed deep appreciation for China’s strong support for intra-Palestinian dialogue and reconciliation. They stated their readiness to implement the consensus, strengthen unity among factions, advance the reconciliation process, and work for an early solution to the question of Palestine.

Diplomatic envoys to China or their representatives from Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Russia and Türkiye as well as representatives from 14 main Palestinian factions attended the closing ceremony.

LONG LIVE THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA AND LONG LIVE COMRADE XI JINPING