Lebanon is Poland. They also have a comprador government who is hellbent on being in good graces with the country trying to conquer them (Israel/Germany) and refusing any help from the country desperately trying to stop that unhinged country (Iran/Soviet Union) because they have a scary ideology and are not civilized(westernized) enough and actually they are the real threat.

Seems like maybe Venezuela or Iran was Poland.

they cannot expand westward further than the Algarve. The territories will be ripe for population within a few generations