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are you using external DNS hosting? is it in a (now) blocked country? if so, then your local certbot is unable to update the DNS server records (return traffic from your DNS host is being blocked by your iptables/nftables config).
yeah, that would suggest an https renewal method. had you previously configured web server renewal at all before switching over to DNS? any other suspicious notifications in the logs?
edit: in thinking about this a little more... the renewal has to be initiated by your host, and that is likely done via https (you talk https to the acme server and tell it you want a renewal by DNS). so, if you are blocking the acme servers then the same issue applies - no return traffic.