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this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2023
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I disagree - on paper sure they would, but at the end of the day the UK is the ≈2nd biggest economy in Europe (UK and France make up 2nd & 3rd and who is bigger changes every couple of years), unlike Georgia or Moldova or whoever else where their joining is barely noticeable.
That means that the EU is more likely to want the UK to join, vs smaller countries wanting to join the EU, although it would be mutually beneficial of course - the UK would likely increase the EU's power a little more than the EU would increase the UK's power, but saying that hides the fact that it'd probably be a 10+% increase in both cases.
Of course the EU could make an example of the UK if they were want to rejoin, but if they were to look at it objectively then they'd most likely reach the conclusion that the negatives of making the concessions they made before are far outweighed by the additional collective power of having the UK as a member.
The UK has proven itself to be a very fickle partner. If they want to join, we would need some serious proofs of good faith. Those proofs are called Euro and Schengen.
That's a fair point, however it's hard to see the EU making an example when it's so in its interest not to... Chances are they'd end up getting some hard proofs in terms of legislation commiting the UK to the EU for a lengthy time period and maybe some other "commitments" which don't boil down to anything but look firm to members and citizens (as loved by governments everywhere who want to look like they're doing things while also not wanting to do those same things)
It’s not a “make an example” situation.
It’s a “fool me once” situation.
Also the nature and goal of the union have changed. Euro and Schengen are table stakes. It’s what the union is about.
I'd disagree - it hurts both the EU and the withdrawing nation to have a nation withdraw, so saying "if you withdraw you will end up coming back, but on terms more beneficial to us" is a good move for the EU to further decay eurosceptic movements around Europe. Letting places rejoin on the same terms would encourage eurosceptics as they'd say "we can always rejoin on the same terms"
Why would we let the UK join on the same terms when the terms aren’t conducive to the current aims of the union AND HAVE NOT BEEN SO FOR DECADES?
The UK just doesn’t fit in the EU. They were barely a match for the EC. If they find a Time Machine, they are free to join the 1990 EC under the same terms as they had before. They are not free to join the 2023 EU under those same terms because it’s a different organization that does different things.
Yes the UK is a large powerful nation. But if it doesn’t share the aims of the club, why should we let it in?
And everyone in Britain knows this. They have been banging the “political union vs economic union” for decades. You can see it in this very thread. Well, the EU it’s a political union. You join it now, you become part of a political union.
Or you don’t, and define a different relationship, like Norway or Switzerland or Canada.
Indeed it hurts both. But the EU will survive this issue. With the UK, I'm not sure.
It depends on the news you read. If you look at the polls, Scotland isn't in favour of independence and NI has never been in favour of joining the Republic.
If you're reading news that says the UK is about to fall apart I could point you in the direction of some equally wrong news saying that Italy, Poland etc. are about to leave the EU
Why would it not be in the interest of the EU to make an example? Poland and Hungary were (led by extremist right political parties) playing with the idea of leaving the EU, too. I think it has become mighty quiet on that front now that they have seen how much of a pain it is for the UK to empty a whole magazine into their own feet.
Same for France and Italy. Nobody is making loud noises about leaving the EU anymore.
The best outcome for the EU would be to drag their feet and wait a decade for readmittance. Right now companies are moving from the UK to the EU.
This is exactly the mentality that made Brexit come true and the post-Brexit agreements such a mess: "The EU needs the UK more than the other way round!". Now look at it and tell me who needs whom more?
Neither truly needs the other - both are hurt by Brexit but they're both getting along ok without the other (although brexit was far softer than people tend to realise - aside from a few very major things the UK is still de facto in a lot of EU institutions, and not including issues caused by Russian invasions)
I don't think EU has any reason to "make an example" by being hard on UK, but they also have no reason to bend the rules to be soft on UK. It would be a really bad signal to send to other joining countries to let the ex-country in easier.
The longer the wait, the sweeter the deal - for the EU.
Yeah well, I'd like them to rejoin before they run the country further down. I've visited London several times and I'm shocked to see how it is noticeable falling behind already. If this keeps up, it won't be great for EU to accept a "Mississippi" state. The sooner they rejoin the better it is for both UK and EU.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/03/britain-economy-society
I wholly agree, but as long as the political scene is like it is, it will be quite unlikely. I guess it will take at least a generation to get over this in the UK alone, and then it will be questionable still.
It seems the British (IMO the English in particular) need to eat humble pie and the way to make them is sadly economic ruin.
It's no good letting in somebody who is that flaky and loud and proud about it.
This belongs on the side of a Brexit bus.
Making the same concessions and signal to every other country that you can just hop in and out on a whim? Uhhh I have a bridge to sell you if you really believe that.