I'd be curious to hear your reasoning on why you think it's not inevitable because in my view it absolutely is, assuming that we don't destroy ourselves before we get there.

Intelligence seems to be what explains why we're the dominant species on the planet. It's our most valuable asset and more of it always seems desirable. Every incentive we have points toward building more intelligent systems, and I don't see us stopping. It might take a long time, but for as long as we keep improving the systems we'll get there eventually. Creating an actual AGI would be the most powerful human invention ever - and also the last one - so in my view there's no stopping. We'll chase that for as long as it takes no matter the consequences. The payoff is just too great not to go after.