The Azerbaijani army has unilaterally launched a "counter-terrorist operation" on the territory of the unrecognized Armenian Republic of Artsakh.
The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced that local anti-terrorist actions would be carried out to restore the constitutional order.
The formal reason given was the explosion of two pieces of equipment by mines in the “gray zone”: the Azerbaijanis claim that civilians were killed.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry called Azerbaijan’s military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh “large-scale aggression”.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry calls on the UN Security Council and Russian peacekeepers to take measures to stop Azerbaijan’s hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.
"The Azerbaijani side did not warn Russian peacekeepers in advance about today’s anti-terrorist operation in Nagorno-Karabakh" - Maria Zakharova
"The information was communicated to the Russian contingent a few minutes before the start of hostilities,” said a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman.
The Armenian Apostolic Church called Azerbaijan’s actions in Nagorno-Karabakh genocide and called on international organizations to adequately respond to Baku.
The Azerbaijani army launched a major attack in the directions of Askeran, Agdere, Khojaly, and Khojavend with the support of armored units
The Azerbaijani army shells the outskirts of Stepanakert in Nagorno-Karabakh with artillery. The air raid warning sounds in the city.
Artsakh Defense Forces: "The Azerbaijani Armed Forces are trying to advance into depth of Artsakh. The Defense Forces continue to resist Azerbaijan’s offensive along the entire line of contact."
"Azerbaijan launched a ground operation to ethnically cleanse the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia did not give anyone a mandate to carry out ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh" - Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan
I'm sure we will get more news as the situation develops but all signs point to this being a very bad development. Hopefully the humanitarian catastrophe can be avoided or somewhat mitigated.
Taking a broader historic view at the situation i want to point out that this is a unique case of us getting a view of an alternate history scenario, namely we may see what would have happened in the situation with the Donbass had Russia not acted and intervened the way it did.
Kiev was preparing to launch just such an operation in late 2021/early 2022 with the aim of fully re-establishing control over the rebellious Donbass republics, and if successful of subsequently carrying out comprehensive ethnic cleansing. In both cases large armies sufficient to overrun the much weaker army of a breakaway region were amassed and the "anti-terrorism" justification was used.
The crucial difference lies in how the nation which understood itself as the protector of the breakaway ethnic group reacted: Russia pre-empted the Ukrainian attack on the Donbass by recognizing the independence of the two republics, then accepting the call for help received from these republics in defending themselves from the impending and ongoing attacks.
Armenia by contrast has refused to recognize the independence of Artsakh and as such has abandoned their fellow Armenians in that region to their fate. Because the Armenian government still recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, the hands of their historic ally Russia, the only ones who would have been capable of helping the militarily weak Armenia against the much stronger Azerbaijan are effectively tied. They can only do so much in their role as peacekeepers
Iran, though on very good terms with Armenia, also recognizes Azerbaijan's sovereignty over N-K and will not intervene unless the Armenian Zangezur corridor (a vital national interest for Iran) is threatened.
Sadly it seems the political leadership of Armenia have decided to sacrifice their compatriots in Artsakh, exploiting this tragedy as an opportunity to discredit Russia and justify pursuing closer military and geopolitical alignment with the US.
The irony is that the US, as well as their allies "Israel" and Turkey, are and will continue to be firmly on Azerbaijan's side, as it is much more geopolitically valuable to them than Armenia (for various reasons such as oil/gas, position vs. Iran, pan-Turkism, etc.).
Right now it is still possible for Azerbaijan (at the "request" of the US/EU) to decide to suddenly stop before incurring too much bad PR, judging that the goal of creating enough uncertainty over Russia's ability to keep the peace has been achieved. This would enable Yerevan to crank up the rhetoric persuading Armenians of the necessity of the geopolitical realignment.
The ethnic cleansing would still be achieved but over a longer period of time and with less overtly military means that are too visible to the international audience. Instead of evicting them all in one big military operation the pressure would slowly be ratchetted up until life is made unbearable enough for the people to simply leave. In this i'm sure Baku will receive lessons and training from their Israeli allies.
Do you actually believe this? Honestly? What part of preventing ethnic cleansing did trying and failing to take Kiev play? Digging ditches in radioactive forests? Being made look foolish at an airfield?
My friend your failing capitalist state you've chosen to support is now so weak it can't hold back Azerbaijan.
I'm not going to rehash all of the myths and nonsense about the Ukraine conflict that you brought up, there is plenty of info out there if you care to un-indoctrinate yourself.
On the situation with Artsakh i will just say this: it is not Russia's responsibility, it is Armenia's. If Armenia does not ask for help then Russia cannot force it on them. Russia has no CSTO obligations toward Nagorno-Karabakh. Its treaty is with Armenia, and Armenia does not claim Karabakh as its own territory. Armenia explicitly recognizes Azeri sovereignty over N-K. Therefore as far as Russia and the rest of the world is concerned it is an internal Azerbaijan matter. Armenia has decided it does not want to get involved to protect its people, so why should Russia? You can't help someone who doesn't want to be helped.