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this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2023
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It's not 15 or 20 years ahead of time, though. The "ghost cities" came alive within only a few years; for example, this page points to Zhengdong New District, which was singled out as a ghost city by 60 Minutes in 2013. It had a population of 5 million seven years later. For district development (as opposed to constructing a single building), seven years is nothing.
Coming back to their current property crisis: let's assume the article is correct that there's an excess of 7 million homes. We can plug this into China's current urbanization rate, and suppose China will get to South Korea's urbanization rate in 20 years (that's roughly how far they're behind SK, by GDP per capita). At one home for every 3.5 people, they need 3.4 million homes per year on average. So they have overshot by about 2 years, which is hardly going to make buildings crumble.