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Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine in just 2 days — it now says the war will last at least 3 years
(www.businessinsider.com)
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this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2023
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If Russia keeps this invasion up for another few years, they'll run out of soldiers. Are they expecting to put women, children, and farm animals on the front line when that happens?
Are people ignoring that Russia is substantially more populated than Ukraine? Ukraine isn't winning a war of attrition.
But Russians don't want to fight. They want to win, just don't want to fight. Those are different. Ukrainians want to take their homes back or defend their families.
Lots of Ukrainians could leave if they wanted. There are Ukrainian refugees in lots of countries, so the path out is paved. I know I would already have left. The Ukrainians left in the country are not going to leave for anything besides nukes.
About that...
Both countries can probably sustain these high losses if they are only willing to keep committed. If we look at WW numbers.
Just a rough calculation: If Ukraine was to send 5% of their population to the front lines, they could lose 200k each year, for more than nine years. Russia obviously more.
From what I see based on the numbers, Russia only has around 1.3 million troops (including reserves, and paramilitary, who already showed disloyalty to Putin). Ukraine has around a half million.
But Russian losses have been disproportionately greater, so they could run out of fighters sooner, if things keep up the way they've been. But considering that Ukraine is now getting more advanced weapons and support, Russia could lose more soldiers and high-value targets faster than before.
When you factor in that Russian soldiers have almost no motivation to fight, while Ukrainians have every reason to defend their home, things don't look good for Russia.
What can tip the balance is whether other countries decide to support Russia, then the world would be in trouble.