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Predictive Policing Software Is Terrible At Predicting Crimes
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this post was submitted on 03 Oct 2023
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I mean that's just not a realistic thing to believe. People aren't actually unique or special.
So at some point computational power will meet the right algorithm and suddenly we can model morons.
Short sprint to predictive policing. And before anyone gets all bent out of shape, go ahead and ask a criminal defense attorney how many of their clients are 'criminally stupid.' Based on conversations I've had, I imagine the answer is 'a fuck ton of them.'
Of course that makes people feel weird so we probably won't do it even when we can, but that's not the same thing as 'it'll never be possible.'
There is no algorithm that will ever predict that someone will do something100% because there are too many factors, including those that come up during the opportunity to commit a crime, to account for. That doesn't even cover the fact that the algorithm can only predict based on the information it is given and calculate based on our assumptions about people based on other data.
At best it will be the technical equivalent of stop and frisk, with racist outcomes based on racist assumptions. Like most forensic stuff, it will just be technology used to justify what people already assume.
Not to mention that stupid people doing stupid things makes them very unpredictable at the individual level.
There is lot wrong with your comment.... And what you're saying makes me suspect you have zero actual experience with the criminal justice system.
Just one point before I duck out - we put folks in jail for life and even kill them on less than 100% proof because the standard is 'reasonable doubt.'
Speculate all you want, enjoy being wrong.
For example, it is beyond a reasonable doubt.
There is far too much randomness in life to be able to predict everything, unless you can know everyone's actions at all points in time. Which we seem to not be too far off from...