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this post was submitted on 13 Oct 2023
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I agree with all of this. The only thing I’d add is that there’s a high possibility of a ground incursion to ensure the destruction of the tunnels.
Given Hamas has no real relevant air defense, they’re just going to use bunker buster type munitions to collapse the tunnels (and the buildings that have entry points). At that point, they can send in ground units to finish. Hamas also has no ground-fighting capability versus armor or artillery, and will be relegated to house-to-house against an enemy that can just call in an artillery or air strike. Hamas also has no path of resupply. It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point.
If they’re playing it smart, Israel wil let the ICRC and other aid groups in as soon as they’ve cleared an area and it’s safe for NGOs to conduct aid.
In terms of long term strategy, Israel will need to do more than simply allow NGOs in to conduct aid. Any power vacuum can be dangerous, and giving direct aid will help minimize the chances that a more violent group than Hamas will sieze the opportunity.