It's hard to argue that the escalations of harassment, settler expansion, and killings of Palestinians in 2023 wouldn't lead to some sort of retribution attack by Palestinians. I think the Israelis were shocked by the success of the attack and the failure of their security system to minimize the damage. I don't think they were oblivious when many analysts and even the Egyptian government suggested a few days earlier that things were getting hot (they didn't warn of an imminent attack like was reported in some media, but that there was an increasing threat of some sort of violent resistance to Israel's violation of international law).

Israel knows they're violating the 1967 borders, they also know how bullying works. Every few months, bulldoze some houses and claim that area as your own. Keep squeezing and poking until your victim lashes out violently and then use that violence as justification to be more violent. It's a classic bully tactic.