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this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2023
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I am aware that the secret ballot is non-binding and just serves as a way for Republicans to get a feel for which candidates their party can support. If Jeffries getting 5 votes actually affected anything, there would be no way that I could convince anyone in this hypothetical to go along with the plan.
This is would be a warning. The relatively small number of representatives that have been able to paralyze the house are only able to do so because they have enough votes to prevent any nominee from getting by on Republican votes alone. But their unwillingness to support their party's nominees and the way they've treated their own party members as the enemy is only increasing the divide.
The extremists are overplaying their hand because they need the whole party to go along with their bullshit, while the moderates can block just as effectively, but can also cross the aisle. Realistically, that would mean finding a compromise that Democrats could support. But theoretically, if a group of 5 or more moderates were determined to put an end to this and felt strongly enough about preventing a particularly bad nominee from getting pushed through, they could hand the speakership over to the Democrats without warning.
Putting in 5 votes for Hakeem Jeffries in the secret ballot would be a way of warning the party that it needs to pick a nominee that can be supported by the majority, and particularly the moderates. It would be telling the MAGA holdouts that they have to choose between a compromise candidate that they can support or they'll get one that the Democrats can support
I wouldn’t expect Republicans to actually make a deal with Democrats to make Jeffries the speaker. I think the deal they would have to negotiate would be to get Democrats to support a Republican who is less objectionable to both sides, and who isn't going to be held hostage by the whims of whoever wants to be the least reasonable.