He could give actual blowjobs on stage after getting the words "filthy whore" tattooed on his forehead and it wouldn't crack the top ten things he's done to drive away potential voters.

Harris holds on to the support of nearly all Democrats, with 97% saying they will support her and 0% saying they will support Trump.

But she also gets 5% of Republicans who say they will vote for her over Trump. Trump holds 89% of Republicans.

The poll shows a small universe of people who say they previously supported Trump and have now switched their vote to someone else.

Among those not supporting Trump, 16% say there was a time when they supported him, while 81% say they have never supported him. Another 3% are not sure.

This is a factor that very few polls ever look for. There are so many reasons to oppose Trump which transcend partisan politics. We've had so many Republicans endorse Harris, but you don't see many polls looking for the voters that are making the same jump.

The implications are huge. Every voter that switches from Trump to Harris is a net gain of 2 votes. And if they are still registered Republicans, any early voting data will likely be interpreted with them in the Trump column until they are actually counted. And of course, any voter turnout efforts paid for by the Trump campaign will likely be turning these people out as well, which is just delightful.

We'll see how accurate this is on Tuesday. But if Iowa really does go blue, it seems likely that it won't be the only surprise that night.

All the recent talk of Epstein has been bringing back memories.

Local employye owned grocery chain is consistently the best place to shop, didn't inflate prices across the board like everyone else, and the workers actually get treated like human beings. It's proof enough for me that this model should be far more common

There are some additional reasons to be optimistic.

First, the poll numbers have been getting skewed by Republican affiliated pollsters that consistently show Trump in a better position than the nonpartisan polls. The race is definitely close, but if these partisan polls really are just trying to give the impression of a surge in Trump support and aren't actually more accurate than the nonpartisan polls, then that potentially pushes some states from a narrow Trump lead back to a narrow Harris lead. And it's not like there isn't a precedent for this, it's exactly what happened with the polls in 2022.

Second, while Republicans are casting a higher percentage of the early votes than in 2020, that increase is largely coming from people who voted on election day in 2020. Moving a vote from election day to early voting is a net change of 0. And the Harris gotv machine appears to be much stronger than the one Trump outsourced to Musk, which seems to be targeting the least reliable voters while also using the least reliable canvassers. It's no wonder Musk resorted to buying ~~votes~~ petition signatures.

Harris has a stronger lead among women than Biden or Clinton did, and the gender gap in turnout so far is also higher in the previous elections. In addition, Harris is leading among voters over 65, a reversal from previous elections and particularly important because they are by far the most reliable voters.

And the news cycle has not been kind to Trump this past week. It turns out that insulting groups that make up a sizable chunk of the voting population in certain key swing states isn't a good move. Will it make a difference by Tuesday? Hard to say, but it sure as hell isn't helping him.

None of this is terribly solid, it's just trends and indicators, no one should be getting complacent here. But it's enough for me to feel cautiously optimistic that Harris will be able to secure Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with a reasonable chance of picking up at least one more state.

If the Republican gotv gamble backfires and their election day turnout advantage doesn't fully materialize, we could see more states flip. More importantly, it could be enough to flip the House (currently a toss up) and maybe even hold the Senate (requires defying expectations in at least 2 out of 3 races, so a long shot but not impossible).

"If that pumpkin didn't want it, why was it smiling at me?"

He's not relying on Ukraine's allies running out of money, he's betting that they'll lose interest and/or vote for pro-Russian stooges before he loses the ability to win the war.

They're trying to portray it as something that was done from the very beginning, as opposed to something they only pinned down in preparation for the 3rd game in the series. Nothing wrong with them getting through two games before writing out their bible, but that doesn't make for a very compelling article.

"A lot of that was in my head until we were starting Inquisition and the writers got a little bit impatient with my memory or lack thereof, so they pinned me down and dragged the uber-plot out of me. I'd talked about it, I'd hinted at it, but never really spelled out how it all connected, so they dragged it out of me, we put it into a master lore doc, the secret lore, which we had to hide from most of the team."

So, no they didn't know the "deepest secrets" of the lore 20 years ago. One guy had vague notions in his head, and they only actually fleshed it out when they were working on Inquisition.

Worked for Captain America

Not to mention delays in aid due to ~~Putin's henchmen~~ Republicans fighting tooth and nail to prevent any support for Ukraine.

Oh he knew the spoiler effect was a thing. He just didn't think it was Trump that he'd be hurting.