My own anecdotal experience confirms this; I have a large family that is nearly 50/50 legal & paperless USians and those who were allowed to vote supported Clinton over Trump at a rate somewhere around 75/25% while now it's closer to 50/50% between Biden and Trump.

I didn't get it until very recently when my own situation improved dramatically due to Trump's dumbass actions while he was in office and it came at a time in my life when it was crystal clear that my life's trajectory was going to take a similar doomed path that my silent, boomer, and genx relatives experienced under the status quo.

I don't doubt Biden will win the 2024 election but trump is demonstratably gaining ground. I think it's because the status quo guarantees that others who share my family's demographics will continue to suffer more than most and I suspect that trump may have a viable chance if he can stay alive to 2028; remain politically relevant; and be able keep the felony charges at bay until after 2024.