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I Don't Believe This Weekend's Scary Poll Numbers
(www.esquire.com)
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this post was submitted on 07 Nov 2023
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politics
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I'm concerned about the poll, but not freaking out like some seem to. The fact of the matter is that we're still a year out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. I think Trump's numbers will erode as the public sees more of him (because he's be relatively quiet since 2021), and they will be reminded why they don't like him. That's not even taking the trials into account, which I think will further erode his support.
Where I'm concerned is not that these people who leave Trump aren't going to Biden; they're either not going to vote or go for a third party. While it gets the job done, it leaves less margin for error because there will probably be less Democratic turnout.
Trump doesn't get the over saturation that the rest of politicians seem to get. I don't know why that doesn't apply to him. The more he is in the news, the better he polls.
Wait for the attack ads. The Dems better take the gloves off and keep showing that trump tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Attack ads work, they make prospective voters stay home on election day. The Dems need to use them aggressively this time.
How much more could he show? Everyone knows who he is.
Everyone knows who he is, but he's been normalized and relatively quiet for a few years. As there gets to be more coverage, I think some of the Biden 2020->Trump 2024 or Nothing 2020->Trump 2024 voters will just not vote out of disgust because they're reminded what he's like. This is more of a vibes thing. They haven't felt Trumpy vibes, so they don't remember what he's like (at a visceral rather than intellectual level). I think a lot of people saying they'll vote for Trump now have some rose-colored glasses about his behavior.