I’m seeing a lot of what looks like famous last words in this thread. I just don’t know where you people get this confidence in the American people from.
I just don’t know where you people get this confidence in the American people from.
Same. 2016 and covid were just a little taste of how low we can go. I don't doubt that it can get worse.
And it likely will, as more states ignore popular vote, and force women to either risk their lives, with sweeping bans
This, 100%. Americans were the people dumb enough to elect Trump. They haven't changed that much in 8 years. All bets are off.
People also forget that he barely lost in 2020. Frightening.
He lost pretty convincingly. It was only 3 years ago. You don't remember Biden voters lining up to vote early, during a worldwide pandemic, just to kick Trump while he was down.
Biden won 25 states, the District of Columbia, and one congressional district in Nebraska, totaling 306 electoral votes. Trump won 25 states and one congressional district in Maine, totaling 232 electoral votes. This result was exactly the reverse of Trump's victory, 306 to 232, in 2016 (excluding faithless electors).[321] Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidential election in Georgia since 1992 and in Arizona since 1996,[20] and the first candidate to win nationally without Florida since 1992 and Ohio since 1960, casting doubt on Ohio's continued status as a bellwether state.[322] Biden carried five states won by Trump in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also became the first Democrat since 2008 to carry Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, winning one electoral vote from the state. Trump did not win any states won by Clinton in 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
I was referring to the popular vote, not the sick joke that is the electoral college. He got like 48% of the 170 million-ish votes in 2020.
Why would you care about that? That doesn't decide the election. Anyway, he lost that by 4.5% (7 million votes). Biden's percentage (51.3%) was the highest for a challenger to an incumbent president since 1932. Trump got completely stomped.
He lost the popular vote, twice, by millions.
Don't blame all Americans.
Kind of hard for them to be last words when the election is still a year off
This. People seem to think the voting public has a memory. As ever, these early analyses are meaningless.
Polls just create talking points for media to run around with. You could easily find (or discard) data to create any narrative you wanted. Remember when Hillary was the runaway favorite? Remember when Jeb Bush was the front runner?
Just go out and vote. End of the day no matter what the early polls say. Go Vote. Make your voice heard.
Remember when Bobby Boucher showed up at halftime and the Mud Dogs won the Bourbon Bowl?
Go vote. Help other people vote. Make sure people are registered to vote, locally and in other states via online call-banks.
Nothing else matters. Secure the vote and protect the vote.
And regularly check your voting eligibility, especially as the voter registration date draws closer. Republicans are not above purging rolls at the 11th hour.
the fact that he's been indicted up and down the eastern seaboard has figured less prominently in the campaign than the current president's age.
smh
There's a certain contingent that will fervently support him no matter what happens. To these people the trials are all a conspiracy and just that much more reason they should give everything in the trailer to support their savior's rise to the throne.
And these people are so passionate about it they probably go out of their way to vote in said polls. While most anyone else is not even answering the polls, giving this a bias.
A lot can happen in a year.
In American politics, a year is an eternity.
Still, it's pretty unbelievable if Trump is actually running ahead at any point after everything that has happened with Jan 6, Roe, the criminal cases, getting involved with porn stars, etc. Really makes me lose faith in the US.
Tbf, regarding the last point I think you mean, "sexually assaulting a porn star." There's no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you're sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
There's no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you're sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
Definitely. I was actually referring to the fact that millions of conservative evangelical Christians rail at "promiscuous behavior" on a daily basis but apparently give Trump a total pass on that. Despite his obvious lack of integrity and behavior that's contrary to what they preach, he's somehow just the type of leader they want.
I think we, as a society, have got to the point where people simply don't care about the facts any more. It's all about feelings now. I think we're really at a point where facts no longer matter.
Take a look at everything that Biden has accomplished, even in this political climate of hate. What is his reward? The voters telling him "We don't care. You're too old.". None of his accomplishments matter. All they care about is that he's north of 80 and therefore shouldn't be in the White House. And they refuse to accept the fact that a vote for anyone other than Biden, or just staying home, is a de-facto vote for someone exponentially worse.
How many Palestinians, and Muslims in general, are allowing their judgement to be clouded by the Israel/Gaza situation to the point where they're actively saying "Down with Biden, consequences be damned"? Some of them are openly willing to accept a Trump presidency simply because it's not Biden.
The Department of Justice is basically terrified of going after Trump because of the fear of partisan politics. Not the interests of justice. Partisan politics and the court of public opinion. And these people don't even have to worry about being voted out of office. They have deferred to Trump out of fear of the backlash, and have even charged Hunter Biden with crimes based on flimsy evidence just to say that they were "non-partisan". The facts have not dictated how Merrick Garland has approached anything. It's all been about the appearance of impartiality and catering to the court of public opinion.
Trump's poll numbers continue to go up with every passing indictment and every courtroom appearance. And this is after he openly and repeatedly states his intent to dismantle government as we know it and install an authoritarian state. People are hearing about this on the daily, remembering what his first term was like, and saying "Yes, I want more of that!". Not because the facts are on his side. In fact, quite the opposite: He's outright telling people what the want to hear, and the actual facts don't matter. And it's working.
This is where we are at as a society. It's facts vs. feelings, and feelings may very well win. It's very difficult to argue from a position of facts when a not-insignificant part of the voting base is saying "We know about that. We just don't care.". Getting people to change their mind on something when their opinions are based on the facts is pretty easy. Getting people to change their mind when they don't care about the facts and are just going with their feelings? Not so much.....
Look at it this way. Trump could come out tomorrow and say that you (let's pretend you're Biden) have monkeys flying out of your ass that are terrorizing Washington, DC. We all know that that's stupid and irrational (and therefore, I expect Trump to say it tomorrow). Here's the issue with it, though. You could just ignore it because it's stupid and nonsensical. But if 51% of the people who you need to vote for you are saying that monkeys flying out of your ass is a significant problem, then you have no other choice but to address the nonexistent monkeys flying out of your ass if you want to actually win the election. Sure, you could continue to say that they don't exist because duh, but if the voters are really that concerned, you'll be saying that from your campaign headquarters while watching Trump give his victory speech.
Right now, Trump is saying that an entire zoo is coming out of Biden's ass. And people are believing it.
How many Palestinians, and Muslims in general, are allowing their judgement to be clouded by the Israel/Gaza situation to the point where they’re actively saying “Down with Biden, consequences be damned”? Some of them are openly willing to accept a Trump presidency simply because it’s not Biden.
I think the thing that really gets me about this sentiment is "Do you really think Donald Trump would've killed fewer Palestinians?" Killing brown people is a Republican past-time at this point. I understand being angry to the point of self-destruction if you think hurting yourself might help someone else, but this isn't even that. It's literally self-destructive and would make the very thing they're mad about worse. For my sanity I have to believe this is like some tiny twitter echo chamber that the media is blowing up for clicks.
The polls didn't predict the 2016 win by Trump. They didn't predict the 2018 blue wave accurately. They didn't predict highest voter turnout in 100 years in 2020. They failed to predict a red wave that never materialized in 2022. BUT, I've got a good feeling about polling in 2024!
"When looked at in historical context, what stands out isn’t that polling in 2016 was unusually poor, but that polling of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential races was uncannily good — in a way that may have given people false expectations about how accurate polling has been all along.
The other factor is that the error was more consequential in 2016 than it was in past years, since Trump narrowly won a lot of states where Clinton was narrowly ahead in the polls."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
Polling errors happen. Even a 95% accurate poll is bound to be wrong 1 in 20 times. This poll is such a massive outlier that the prudent thing to do is wait for more polling.
That said, I don’t doubt that Americans feel grumpy right now and they’re blaming the incumbent. I do cautiously doubt this degree of grumpiness amongst these demographic groups.
Agreed. A lot of people are grumpy about how he's handling the Israeli/Hamas War. A lot of people were also grumpy about how he handled Afghanistan. Only one of these two things is still in the public zeitgeist, however...
It's a full year out from the actual election, and I don't expect either of these two things will be generally remembered at the polls next year.
I seriously doubt the pull out of Afghanistan and the support of Israel is causing voters to prefer Trump in battleground states. Especially Afghanistan, which literally no one is talking about anymore. Maybe Israel policy has an effect, but I suspect pro-Palestinian sentiment is sadly pretty low outside of the Lemmy bubble.
People are pessimistic about inflation, the economy, gas prices, affordability and all the bummer news in general. They blame the president. “Feelings” about the economy are one of the most reliable predictors of presidential elections.
He won the first time in no small part to folks that considered both sides the same and wanted to see it all burn. Lets hope they learned their lesson.
Narrator: They didn't
Don't make the mistake of believing the reasons people give for supporting Trump over Biden are their actual reasons. Biden's age, in particular, is approximately nobody's reason for opposing him; it's an excuse they give, or maybe a reason they think will persuade others. You won't persuade anyone by debunking an argument they never cared about in the first place.
Fascism doesn’t follow the rules, and neither do the leaders or mobs that push them to power.
How were people reached to poll them? Is this a phone poll? How many people under 65 do you know that answer the phone to unknown numbers, and also are willing to answer loaded questions for 10 minutes?
Of the people that do answer the phone and answer, what candidate do you imagine they'd vote for?
Look, we are all still traumatized from 2016. And this shit is still way too fucking close.
Ten people at the party took a vote to see what to eat. Six people wrote "pizza" and 4 people wrote "the dog." This is US politics.
I'd sooner believe he'd get 22 percent of the votes from pixies, elves, and the Tuatha de Denaan.
This author is a mad fool! The fey embrace chaos, they would surely surely love a 2nd Trump administration.
The rapist Donald J. Trump indeed raped E. Jean Carroll but the sex with Stormy Daniels was consensual.
Why are polls even being talked about right now? Is it because Trump wanted us to?
Because a reputable pollster did a year-to-go poll.
I'm 62 and been ignoring calls from unknown callers for years.
But I'm getting bombarded by emails from both parties.
It would be one cold frosty day in hell before I voted RepubliKKKlan.
The demo emails are annoying -- people from other states begging for money, telling me shit I've known for years.
Staaaap!
I'm concerned about the poll, but not freaking out like some seem to. The fact of the matter is that we're still a year out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. I think Trump's numbers will erode as the public sees more of him (because he's be relatively quiet since 2021), and they will be reminded why they don't like him. That's not even taking the trials into account, which I think will further erode his support.
Where I'm concerned is not that these people who leave Trump aren't going to Biden; they're either not going to vote or go for a third party. While it gets the job done, it leaves less margin for error because there will probably be less Democratic turnout.
The fucker needs to be in jail. Line the outside of it with national guardsmen. The federal and state government has an obligation to both see the punishments through as well as protect the ex-potus. These are no conflicting viewpoints, but rather what must happen to knock some sense into this country.
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