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Top U.S. general doubts China's Xi planning to take Taiwan by force
(www.japantimes.co.jp)
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this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2023
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Are those games weighing Taiwan's defense capabilities versus China alone? In practice China would be up against the USA, and Korea, and Japan, and the Philippines and a plausible economic and logistics alliance of most countries in the region. I am not a military strategist but the sheer numbers alone are not in favor of China, and that is ignoring the tactical challenges at play.
It includes allies. This is because of the tyranny of distance. US simply cannot power project enough to take on China with Taiwan alone.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
But these war games are actually biased towards USA. Pentagon's own war games have China winning already.
https://news.yahoo.com/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html
So if we believe the US military, then China can already win. Though many argue US military says this just to get more funding.
I would err on the side of US just barely winning with all allies.
That said, I do not believe China would invade. It makes no sense. Anyone who claims this is could happen should have their credibility questioned. As China as I said already has shown its hand, it will blockade if it comes to it.