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Public support for carbon tax waning quickly
(www.nationalobserver.com)
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this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2023
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Yes, but there has to be viable alternatives to actually let people change.
People won't stop using the highway for their commute if there isn't another option like a train, reliable rapid transit bus, or an affordable apartment closer to the office.
Most people won't demand any of that if gas is cheap. It requires political will to get public transit built and funded.
Public transit is the standard and the normal around the world. People will commute to work in whichever way is fastest and conveneient for them. Many people would rather read a book or browse the web while a train takes them to work over sitting in traffic. The only reason we don't currently demand it is because many people in Canada have never experienced good transit and walkability so they really don't know we could be building much better. Your mobility freedom in this country is nearly dependant on a driver's lisence or access to a car.
We shouldn't have to be doing the tax shake down and public revolt steps when we know by the numbers that transit is more energy and carbon effecient. Once those alternatives exist, a carbon tax would be much more effective because now people actually have a choice in their transportation.
The carbon tax isn't a "shakedown" btw, the income is redistributed.
Are you suggesting there is a city in Canada that doesn't have some form of public transit? I'm not aware of any large cities like that so I really struggle to understand why you feel the carbon pricing wouldn't be effective right now.
Having public transit is not the same as having reliable and competitive public transit. The transit has to be reliably competitive in travel time and cost to truly see people shift to using it. If most car commutes in the city are 25 minutes, and the average transit time is 1hr 15 minutes, the transit is not competetive enough to attract riders except those with no other option at all.
Transit can be improved by extending the network, increasing the frequency, improving the speed (like dedicated bus lanes or light rail lines), and competitive pricing.
All of those improvements do and are happening though, but ridership is used to inform the changes.
The denser parts of cities do have transit that accomplishes what you're asking for.
Unfortunately a lot of people don't live in cities at all, let alone the dense parts with the service like you describe. EVs may not be the answer overall, but for many people across the country they're the only viable first step away from ICE vehicles.
Right now with affordability the way it is, it feels like we're getting a lot of stick without much carrot.
A lot of people do love in dense areas in cities though. That's what makes them dense.
And programs like the carbon pricing makes those places more attractive to build denser housing.
EVs don't even need to be the only alternative, if the carbon pricing is encouraging someone to buy a more fuel efficient ICE vehicle, the incentive is still working.
I still have such a hard time understanding how people are calling the carbon pricing setup a stick, most of us are getting more money back from the program. Yes overall oil prices worldwide have gone up since the program started, but international oil prices aren't impacted by Canadian carbon pricing policy...
Not everything is black and white. I can agree with the idea of a carbon tax while also acknowledging how it can feel less fair to different people in different areas.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/axe-the-tax-and-carbon-rebate-how-canada-households-affected-1.7046905
This post might help you understand how the carbon tax and rebate system works
But what comes first? An incentive to change or an alternative to the status quo that's been here for over 100 years?
Incentives are needed. Otherwise, as long as it's free to pollute, people won't do anything.
Public transit is public infrastructure.
Did you move into your house before the road to it was built? Or before the water, sewage, and electricity was built?
If we thought of transit the same way, we could have policies like developers need to consider transit connections on new developments just like they'd need to consider roads, sewers and electrcity. The longer we put off building transit, the longer its gonna take to have it working and reducing carbon emissions.
What does that have to do with a carbon tax or what I said? Seems you're making an argument on my behalf and then arguing with yourself.
The alternative to the status quo is the incentive to change. If you build the transit and make it a viable alternative in terms of costs and time, people will take it: millennials, gen z, and soon gen alpha aren't driving at the rate of previous generations for many reasons, they want public transit but they are forced to drive. If cities actually start to prioritize public and active transit infrastructure improvements over those for single occupancy vehicles in a meaningful way people will take them. This is one of those candy for dinner scenarios where the public wants what they want without understanding why it's not good for them and the gov't needs to step up and do what's right instead of caving to the pressure.
That doesn't even make sense because it assumes there's already an alternative and public transit is not an alternative method of transportation for many if not most people.
It works for me, so I use public transportation daily but I know many people I work with drive in because they live far from work and public transit is a nightmare if you have to transfer between train/bus or bus/bus. Even then, my bus is often late, or doesn't show up and there's nothing I can do about it other than complain to the city, which they just ignore anyway.
Adding a cost to driving will force people to reconsider their habits and when enough people have to change, we can demand the city do better with transit. Right now, if you have money, you will not take public transit. It doesn't make sense for people with money and poor people have no choice to take public transit.
And if there is no viable alternative for then to turn to they will not change their minds. We build the infrastructure first, and change the public's mind second with improved commute time, more money in their pocket, etc. I'd rather not wait several years after the public has finally got it through their "me first mentality" to start the decades long process of expanding our pathetic transportation infrastructure to bring us to s21st century standard. We are a half a century behind countries in Europe and Asian in regards to our transit infrastructure, the best time to build it was 50 years ago, the second best is today not in 5 years when driving a car is no longer possible for the majority of people.
I could take the bus to work, but it turns my 2hrs of driving a day into 5 hours of commuting. I would never give up my car until that option is viable, and that's not going to happen until we have the infrastructure to make it viable.
Policy like this isn't meant to impact everyone the same way.
If a city has public transit, they likely have coverage targets. Every city does this differently, but in most cities, the majority of people are targetted to be covered.
This means that if more people start using the system who are covered, it's more likely the system itself will be expanded to cover more places.
But you're all missing the 2nd incentive, this could also incentivise people to move to places near transit and could encourage higher density buildings near better transit.
Both of those are things you want, and both of them are things the carbon pricing helps do.
Viable is subjective. If you have enough money, public transit is never viable. Poor people already can't afford to drive so we're trying to change the minds of people who can afford to drive but don't want to take public transit. The 'me first mentality' is what got us into this mess to start with so the solution needs to speak to those people and money does that.
My buddy at work just changed his driving habits due to increasing costs so he's going from a 25m drive to 1h15m taking public transit. Hardly ideal but that's the point as no city government has the money to spend on new public transit infrastructure until enough voters want it to happen.
Using your own example, you'll continue to drive despite the negative impact to the environment unless the city magically makes your 5 hour commute as quick as your 2 hour drive or the cost of driving forces your hand. Speaking of 'me first mentality'...
Public transit is viable if it means you're commute is faster. There will always be people with an excess amount of money but why do we give a shit what they want, they are a demographic who doesn't need support. Better public transit for those who can't afford to drive means less cars on the road for those who need to or choose to drive which means faster commutes for everyone. It's a win win situation but people are too short sighted to see that.
Cities, provinces, and the feds have the money to build out our public transit infrastructure they just don't want to because it means more work and a chance they will lose votes. Much like parent of the child who wants to eat candy for dinner, the gov't needs to step up and act like the leaders they claim they are, and not roll over like some weak ass parent who is scared of their kids. Vancouver Island, where I live, has a rail corridor going from Courtenay to Victoria that could realistically serve the majority of the islands population yet the municipalities refuse to look at it because the people who vote (seniors) think it's a waste of money, don't want change at the end of their lives, and have all the free time in the world to organize, to write letters to politicians, to go on media campaigns, etc.
Also, I find it laughable that you think I have a me first mentality for not wanting to waste 5 hours of my day commuting when my government refuses to give me a real alternative. If the rail corridor was open and I still chose to drive then sure, that's valid criticism. Until I can move closer to my job (doubtful with $2000+/month for a 2 br) or there's a viable alternative that doesn't mean I lose all agency in my life to save $20 a month then I'm going to continue to drive and if the govt wants me to stop because they "care about the environmental impact" then they can do their job and uphold the public interests and give me and everyone else on the island a real, practical, and economic alternative to driving. This is no different than blaming the consumer about all the plastic bottle waste instead of regulating the industry that produces them.
I am also on Vancouver Island and I completely agree with you. I work at 2 different locations and either one my commute to work is about 45 minutes by car, by bus it is actually impossible. One location has the nearest bus stop 6km away (all 90km/h highway with narrow shoulders) while the other would drop me off at the front door, the schedules don't line up though and I'd have to leave my house for work before I got home the day before. It's theoretically possible to do in about 2 hours, but only with perfect connections and they only line up right in the middle of the day. Not to mention it would require tickets for 2 separate transit systems which add up to almost the same as gas. Housing prices are so insane here too, that moving anywhere (whether it's one house over, right beside work, or anywhere in-between) would cost me more in monthly rent than I'd pay in gas if I drove a Hummer to work.
How do you build transit infrastructure when you don't know where the demand is?
I encourage you to look into China's bullet train network, they did what you're suggesting. And the last I heard the system is struggling because the stations and lines weren't built where people actually needed them so it's heavily underutalized.
The most successful public transit systems were ones built up over time. It's going to take decades to fix public transit in many of our cities, are there any cities that aren't doing this?
Also remember that city policy falls under provincial jurisdiction. I was surprised this year to even see the feds start trying to throw money at that problem and incentivise cities to rethink zoning. But it takes time, and it also takes voting people who care into the right spots (city hall and provincial governments)
The carbon tax disincentive came first, and I think most reasonable people would agree it made sense whether it cost them personally or not. The problem is that for a lot of people the disincentive keeps growing while the alternatives haven't improved at all.
No city can just build alternatives if they don't know where the demand is.
Before a city can justify building anywhere,there needs to be demand. Both sides need to increase in stride.
Viable, but not perfect alternatives do already exist, and if more people use them they will get better, that is exactly what putting a price on carbon does.