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this post was submitted on 28 Nov 2023
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If there was any chance of this being viable by 2028, they would have a demo car today that works
Car production timelines are LONG
Yes this. If those years were realistic there would be a car we'd be looking at in prototype form.
They could maybe make the battery the same form factor as the other one already in production so it wouldn’t be an issue. The battery tech may not allow that… but it’s possible.
The rest of the vehicle just cares about the voltage coming from the battery.
It requires years of test drives to go to market and get production quantities enough to sell
There is a 0% chance it’s available in 2028 if there isn’t a demo unit today.
It might be in some high end “we’ll sell 1,000 of these cars” by then
It’s a battery, they can probably forgo a lot of the usual testing since it’s only necessary to match voltage performance requirements.
In theory, it could also be used to replacing existing vehicles batteries as well.
They can’t bypass certifications
They’ve also been pushing hydrogen and not working on BEVs while everyone else was working on BEVs
I like your optimism, but this is just marketing fluff that won’t come to market on that timeline
I don’t know if the journalist didn’t understand, or Toyota lied, but it’s not happening by 2028
What certification does it need other than be certified by Toyota for use?
You’re right it’s unlikely to happen, but not for any technical or testing reasons like you claimed. If Toyota wants to make it be able to replace existing ones, it’s entirely possible. There’s nothing stopping them other than the battery technology not being able to be the same formfactor for performance.
Engineer in the automotive industry here. Vehicles need a ton of certification by tons of different governments and face very strict regulation.
Just a battery alone is going to be subject to lots of EMC emissions and interference tests. Then you have the capability to survive crashes, fail operational requirements, how does the battery fail (does it explode or just disconnect itself?), etc. etc. These are all dependent on the chassis the battery is in, so they can't just swap it into an existing chassis and say "Oh it worked with battery A, it'll work with battery B." Unfortunately the requirements are just way too strict for that.
Additionally I can't go into details but the sentiment others are echoing of "If it's coming in 2028 they should have a functioning prototype" are true in my experience. It takes several years to design and release a car, and when you're introducing a new battery tech or drive train or similar changes it takes even longer.
Humor me. It’s possible with the batteries we already use, why would this be different? I can go get a li-ion battery to replace a battery in any existing ICE vehicle.
Different battery chemistries do not behave identically in terms of failure modes, EMC emissions and interference response, and tons of other things. Just swapping one battery for another has a huge effect even before you consider auxiliary components like charging circuitry.
My assumptions as to why you can just drop in an aftermarket battery and crate motor into an existing ICE vehicle (also, far from any vehicle, it is a relatively niche product) are that A. The batteries are way smaller and aren't structural to the frame the way they are in BEV-first designs (but this is how we get good range out of them). B. The companies selling these probably aren't held to the same emissions standards that an automaker is.
Again, these are assumptions, I don't work in conversions but in BEV designs primarily. I know there's a ton of red tape for us to even think about changing battery chemistry, and we 100% would have to get all new certifications for it.
You misunderstood, if you require all this certification to change battery types. You wouldn’t be able to replace 12v sealed lead acid in an ICE vehicle with li-ion or other types.
It’s already a thing that happens, yes there is hell of other hurdles, but there’s nothing magical about changing battery chemistry type and the vehicle.
12V sealed lead-acid batteries are a standard size and chemistry... They are absolutely not comparable to a BEV battery. The lithium ion 12V batteries are built to the emissions standards and regulations of the 12V lead acid, that's a known quantity and a hell of a lot less energy. BEV batteries contain kwH of energy, they are significantly larger, are a nonstandard size on every single vehicle. Even if Toyota made it the same size and shape, the energy density might be enough to fail EMC regulations (without having to change the size and shape)
I don't know what else to tell you man, I work on electric vehicles for my job. Literally an engineer. You can choose to not believe me but it just isn't anywhere near as simple as you're acting like it is. Just because you think it's like swapping an alkaline AA for a NiZn AA doesn't make it true.
12v sealed acid batteries are not a standard size and chemistry by any stretch of the imagination. Even is sealed lead acid there is dozens of different chemistry and makeups in the batteries. Your ignorance in this is astounding for an engineer. But I also haven’t seen an engineer willing to admit they made a mistake as well….
You’re trying to claim Something isnt possible just because of a little red tape that can easily (in fact it already is dealt with) be met. It’s not a very good argument even. Its already done, yeah the size changes things slightly, but the precedence shows this is entirely capable of being done.
You can tell me what you want, but there is already a very real world example of this being possible. Sorry. Get your head out of your ass for two seconds and think about this.
Then Toyota has some magic power that all the other car companies I work with don’t
I know Tesla plays fast and loose with NHTSA regulations, but I doubt Toyota will
This battery technology will have to pass safety inspections, just as Li-ion
Test it in existing vehicles, can even do it discretely without the public knowing. Also can be done in lab as well.
Why would it be magic to make a replacement battery, and how would they be playing fast and loose?
If they had the ability to test it in a vehicle, they would be shouting about it from the hills rather than this “maybe it might be possible” report that keeps getting shared
It would be magic to get it into a vehicle in 2028. Every other car manufacturer has finalized their designs past that by now, and aren’t going to risk such a massive change this late in the design process
This is part of why the infotainment systems in cars tend to suck. They’re finalized about 6 years before the car goes to market
Once they have a functional prototype they can do all that, they still have 5 years. As a replacement battery you could retrofit it to any vehicle, so the model year is totally irrelevant.
Some vehicles you’re able to update the infotainment system to more recent version, so maybe not the best example.
I don’t know how else to explain to you that you have to have a street legal vehicle to sell from the factory.
You’re welcome to mod your car, and you probably won’t have issues, but that’s not how it works for new vehicles
The 2022-2027 model year of one of the biggest manufacturers is using a chipset from a phone from 2016 in their infotainment. Yeah, you’ll get some minor updates, but they’ve recently cancelled any more major updates since the chip is dead. And it’ll still go into cars until the next unit they designed last year enters production in 2028
Of course you do. Why would Toyota making a replacement battery to change out in production make it not street legal?
Nonono. You can swap infotainment 4 for infotainment 5 for example, OEM as well. Nothing minor about that, even comes with trim plates. I don’t know what point you thought you were making with a very real OEM replacement on existing vehicles. If anything it reinforces my point that it’s entirely possible.
Because an infotainment system isn’t considered safety critical…
Once they pass safety tests for this new battery, which will take many years, there might be an option for an after market modification, but as the other engineer in this thread tried to tell you, it’s kind of unlikely
Uhh the infotainment system that is paired and works with the safety systems isn’t safety critical…? What…?
The engineer that missed my original point, but now agrees that it’s possible?
Again, not after market at all… OEM factory compliant replacement. If you want to argue a point, make sure you are atleast not confusing and conflating things.
Just admit that it’s possible, yeah it’s unlikely, but the fact they already allow 12v sealed acid with other battery types should be a enough evidence for the average person it’s possible. You can argue a million different avenues that make it not possible. But how does that change we already do it……?