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More than 75% of web3 games failed
(www.coingecko.com)
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this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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Facts Section:
The real question is how does that compare to the rest of the games industry and what counts as a "fail".
So according to the article: a "failure" is when a game becomes "inactive." That seems like a poor standard for failing since every game will eventually be marked as a failure no matter how successful it once was. It could bring in millions of dollars but only 56 people played Deus Ex 1 today. Is that enough to count it as "inactive"? They don't define inactive so it's hard to really say if it's absolute zero or near zero and for how long?
This also is only counting the GameFi platform and only.
So 75% of web3 mobile games fail to stay active for over 5 years. Let's see how this checks with the rest of the industry.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/report-83-of-mobile-games-fail-in-the-three-years-after-launch
83% of mobile games fail in 3 years and 43% of them fail to make it to release.
Okay but what about profitability. That's what really matters!
https://www.shacknews.com/article/56053/analyst-only-4-of-games
4% of games are deemed profitable.
Opinion:
I wouldn't play Web3 games, I don't really see a future for web3. I also don't really see a future for VR/AR. I could be wrong about these things but they right now all seem like gimmicks that haven't caught on. I also think that LLM AI isn't as mind blowingly useful as everyone might think. I think it's a neat tool and nothing more. It's not going to revolutionize AI. That will come from other advancements, potentially on top of LLM but more likely in parallel.
That all said, these stats don't seem to mark the death of web3. These stats actually seem slightly better than the rest of the industry. It's likely because they are on a rise with VC and other funding.
Good analysis, just a few nitpicks: AR is the future... when it matches human visual abilities, which may take several decades more, be it through glasses, or through a neural link. There is a deep uncanny walley in either case to overcome.
I would like to believe in a web3, but right now it's mostly web1/2 interfaces to something that could be achieved in any other way.
LLM AI has already revolutionized AI, it's the holy grail "glue" to keep different AIs working together, including itself.
I mean we'll see. It's why I put it in the opinion section but I don't see AR taking off. Pokemon Go was fun for some but overall I don't see another AR game doing that level of success for a long time. Especially since Console, PC, and traditional mobile games do far better sales/profits than it.
Sorry, I meant game AI rather than general-use AI. I agree, for general use, it's done some interesting things but people try to use it everywhere and for everything. Like games and text generation in games and they create things like "convince this AI to give you a secret code" LLM AI and toss it in a game and it sucks. The biggest issue is players getting stuck in unintended ways which seems to happen constantly with it. Additionally, for AI response and choices, there are already better systems out there like Utility AI or GOAP.
Overall, I don't see LLM revolutionizing game AI in any area for it. Lastly, it doesn't seem to be that useful for math or pattern extrapolation/interpolation. An example I used with ChatGPT 3.5 was simply: O's value is 0, N is -1, and P is 1. What value is A and What value is Z? After some explaining that numbers can only be assigned once, it got a value for A of -14 (correct) and a value for Z as 25 because "Z is 25 letters after O" It took several prompts to get it to admit Z was 11. Lastly, making J = 0 and telling to pivot all values around J being 0, it messed up again.
"Good analysis, just one nitpick: I blanket disagree with everything you've said in your editorial section because raisins."
There's no future for these because the big players that could pull it off have no reason to do so. Game publishers love FOMO and thus hate trading, and platform owners would probably look at Valve's success with the Steam Marketplace instead of the continued failure of crypto.
This one doesn't have that same sort of constraint where it fundamentally doesn't make sense.
VR has a future as an entertainment system for sure. Probably not as widespread as simply grabbing a PS5 and playing Madden, but there's a ton of potential especially as older hardware drops in price and game libraries continue to expand. Porn is gonna keep this concept alive forever either way.
As for AR, its future is utility. Seeing map directions on the road itself, interactive models during meetings, having real life Shadowplay built into your glasses since they're camera peripherals, etc. Or porn but in your room with your own parts idk.