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this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2023
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I'll be happy to be proven wrong, but I don't think Lemmy has any hope of survival as a truly global platform.
I've been through this a few times: Usenet, Digg, Reddit. They started off small and stayed mostly civil even though there is a wide range of opinion. Then they start growing rapidly and people see an opportunity to "get their message out", whether that's spam, personal aggrandizement, a political message, or whatever: exploitation vs participation. After a while it becomes just too much for some people, so they find somewhere else to congregate.
As they leave, that platform becomes ever more useless, leading to more migration. The platform eventually becomes useless even to the exploiters, so they figure out where everyone went and follow them.
And the cycle continues. I think that the cycle can only accelerate as "exploiters" become more proactive in following "participants" to new homes. That implies an eventual breakdown of the whole concept of global discussion communities. Are we seeing that already on Lemmy? I don't know, but I'm registered on 4 different instances, each with their own primary focus, and there has already been a bit of federation/defederation drama on every one them.
I think the only way to break the cycle is to figure out a way to eliminate exploitation. That may well be impossible, at least on any platform that has global reach, centralized or not. As far as I can tell, those who would exploit a system have always found ways to do so.
But is this a bad thing? Even if Lemmy 'doesn't survive' (which I think is a fair way off, personally) something else will take its place. Something always does; ICQ dies, people move to AOL. Digg dies, people go to reddit, Myspace to Facebook and so on. Look at the absolute graveyards of websites where people used to congregate and play games and talk: Battle.net, Mplayer, WON.net, Digg, Usenet, AOL messenger, ICQ, Myspace, there are dozens of these things that, at the time, we felt like would always be there.
Enjoy it while it's here. Make it the best place you can.
I agree. It's just part of the cycle.
Yeah, I totally get that. I think that there is this insatiable desire for the upstart site to topple the previous site. On Digg we made fun of Usenet and Fark, on Reddit we made fun of Digg, on Lemmy people are always saying “fuck Spez”.
I think that people are worried that if Lemmy doesn’t keep growing (at Reddit’s expense), then it will collapse under its own weight. I hope the federated model works out. I could easily host a Lemmy or KBin instance on my homelab.
But yeah, the depressing truth is that as soon as someone invents a profit motive, it’s only a matter of time before it’s ruined.
And it doesn't even have to be the people running the platform or instances having a profit motive. Usenet, for example, started falling apart long before anyone tried to monetize actual hosting. Spammers alone were enough to destroy it.
Anytime you create easy enough access to a large enough group, people will try to exploit that access for their own gain. Obviously, platform and instance operators are best positioned to do so, but exploitive account holders can do plenty of damage on their own.