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this post was submitted on 07 Dec 2023
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Over 30 years as chairman of the Foreign Relations committee and 8 years as VP and you know what his thinking was or if it changed?
Yes, quite easily. He was fully on Netanyahu's side, now he is steadily moving away from him. From this I can conclude that he has decided that supporting Netanyahu is no longer a good idea.
My reasonings why are more supposition, as opposed to any kind of confirmable fact. I cannot read the man's mind, of course. But, some things are more likely than others.
It's not exactly a secret that Biden dislikes Netanyahu and has for a long time. He didn't receive the customary invitation to the white house after his latest election win, which tells you something.
I think Biden decided to be fully on Israel's side after the attack, and to give Netenyahu the benefit of the doubt, hoping he'd rise to the challenge and become a true statesman. Weirder things have happened. Perhaps that was naive, clearly that's not in Netenyahu's nature. Likely it was a decision made in part due to domestic political considerations, but here we are.
Does now make it easier for Biden to criticise Netenyahu and push for moderation. No one can accuse him of not supporting Israel, although I assume the GOP will try to do exactly that if they haven't already.
Foreign Relations is like chess. You have to think several moves ahead. He could have seemed to be with Bibi until he could setup negotiations with Hamas. He had to get space to pressure Qatar to work on his behalf. He knows exactly who Bibi is and what he responds to. That is a much more likely scenario than "we changed his mind".
Domestic politics is as major a consideration as geopolitics. Perhaps even moreso, as how much can you do if you're not in office?
And we don't need any additional routes towards negotiations with HAMAS. If the Qataris didn't want to do it, we'd ask Erdogan.
Your goal in this scenario is making every feel good for an election or getting some hostages out? I think it's a good thing that hostages won.
Erdogan expressed his distain for Isreal eary on. He wasn't an alternative in any way.
It doesn't matter. He's a politician, he has to deal with hard reality, not how he wishes things could be. Erdogan is an ally, no matter how much we may dislike him sometimes. Elections are a reality, and people vote for what they like.
This is hard reality, where things are not simple or easy.
If Bibi is the biggest liar on the world stage, Erdogan is the biggest crackpot. Biden can perform better than any former President and still get junk poll numbers. He's been around long enough that his last election probably doesn't taste that sweet.
Erdogan has continually expressed his disdain for Greece over the past few years. Now he's entirely changed his tune and is visiting Athens to reset relations.
Don't take what politicians say too seriously.
What they do is less influenced by friendships, ideology, or morality. It's mostly realpolitik, the national interest, or domestic political concerns, matter most and not much else.