I am still not sure there will be a "major Russian offensive" in the way that most people are imagining it. I think they will simply continue to incrementally dial up the pressure at all points along the line until the ability of the Kiev regime forces to mount a cohesive defense collapses. I think this is the smart play as Russia is only getting stronger while Ukraine and the collective West are getting weaker, so it's only a matter of time until a tipping point is reached.

Then again I might be completely wrong and the Russians could decide to go for a big flashy offensive just a month from now. Or a year. Who knows. The whole point in a war is keeping your enemy guessing and not telegraphing if, when or where you're going to attack. And that means that casual observers like us sitting on the sidelines are also incapable of predicting with any certainty what they will do.

My expectation would be that we'll see one within the next couple of months. It looks like Russia is already doing offensive operations all across the front, and one likely reason is that they're probing to see where the weak spots are. The front around Avdievka looks to be collapsing right now, so we might see a major push there. Another big factor is the deadlock in US over funding. If the money doesn't get passed in the next few days, then Ukraine likely won't see anything till the end of January at the earliest. This seems to be a good window of opportunity for Russia to exploit.