Here's the thing: he could still pass it.

The NDP would support it, as would the Bloc and Greens. Hell, the PPC would, too. He could just ram it through. Easy-peasy-lemon-squeezy. He has the time left in his mandate.

The problem that the the Liberal Party doesn't want it because it would mean no more Liberal majorities. No Conservative ones, either.

If you go back through electoral history, you have to go back to 1984 to find a party that won a majority. Before that, you have to go back to 1958. It's a little more common before that, but still the exception.

Do we really think the Big Red or Big Blue machines will abandon the system that gives them majority rule without a majority vote share? Fuck, no they won't. Adolf Hitler himself could be running as CPC leader (or Josef Stalin vs the Cons, take your pick) and at risk of winning and they'd still avoid electoral reform because it would mean they'd be one party among many, and thusly less important to the donor class, than they are now.