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this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2023
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I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. When was the last time a sitting democratic president lost the second term, with a strong economy? Plus the entire 18+ demographic waking up thanks to the attack on reproductive rights, on trans, gay, basically anything other than white males.
With the number of criminal charges trump is facing I would be surprised if he gets anywhere near this next election. All it takes is one or two states declaring him unfit under treason and sedition and he has zero chance of winning even with the electoral college being borked.
Plus keep in mind that trump is good for these news organizations. They are going to keep giving him the spotlight and he can keep rilling up the 75% of us that know what his masters want from him.
Remember that it's a very small, very loud minority supporting trump. We also don't have the same troll farms manipulating people on fb and elsewhere like we did last time around. We will also be more likely to be more vigilant (hopefully) protecting people at the voting booth from people scaring off anyone who may vote for sanity.
If he's found guilty in Georgia, even if he doesn't do time, I think it's very unlikely he will be on the Georgia ballot, which will cost him 16 electoral votes he would have otherwise been almost guaranteed to win.
And then all we need is other states like Michigan, California, etc to not let him on and they will have to run someone else who isn't a treasonous traitor who sold/gave away secrets to Russia, NK, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.
There was a day not long ago when the entire republican party would be calling for trumps head and want him strung up in the middle of town. Now there are no crimes they won't ignore if it means getting the dems and making as many people suffer as possible.
Their only position now is "whatever Democrats want, we want the opposite."
Exactly. During Obama they reverted to being obstinate toddlers. Ideas that were originally their idea were all of a sudden the worst thing ever because Obama said it.
Feels by design at this point
It's always been by design.
Honest question from a foreigner: is it possible for the electoral college select a write-in candidate?
If so, Trump not being on the ballot may not be enough to keep him out of power.
People don't think the economy is strong right now. Wages still haven't caught up to the last few years of inflation.
A year is a long time. Look at the labor market right now. Companies are crying for workers and desperately trying not to raise wages. Big companies are laying people off because they are getting squeezed to show continued unsustainable growth but that is self-sabotage in the long run - investments will flow to new competitors who have room to actually grow. But the UAW prevailing and the writer's guild prevailing are bellwethers for the future. The workers are collectively demanding more even if most of us aren't organized into unions.
The economy isn't as weak as people think and improving, so the environment is ripe for wages to rise and people to catch up with the reality. That's all my interpretation anyway. I'm quite positive about the next year. We'll see, but I think it's way too early for any doom and gloom.
Trump is certainly a huge threat, but Biden beat him once and it's likely barring an economic downturn that he will lose again. Never in the history of the United States that I can find has a presidential candidate ever lost an election and then come back to defeat the same opponent they lost to the first time. That's a comfort when I'm feeling stressed about it.
Feels don't beat actual numbers. The economy is bouncing back strong from the pandemic. As another comment said, everyone is hiring. They haven't all (yet) broken and increased wages enough to bring in enough talent but it's slowly getting there. It's been a few years now since wmt, tgt and others increased starting to like $15/hour. That's not enough to retire on but it's a start.
We also have the waves of unions going on strike. This will definitely have a negative impact on the economy (short lived) but then the higher wages these strikes make happen will be part of the next economic boom over the next decade or so. At least that's what I see happening and hope I'm right about.
There is a place for nuanced discussions but letting feelings guide you is not the way forward and neither is letting perfect be the enemy of good.
That's not a uniquely American situation at the moment.
All valid points, but don't forget the Republican party has been working for over a decade through gerrymandering to ensure they won't lose an election. They are close to their goal. If ranked choice were national and popular vote had any weight then gerrymandering would be less effective. Until then it's close to a gamed election system.
If this was 100% foolproof trump wouldn't have lost the second term.
Remember that for decades Republicans only win via the electoral college not the popular vote. We have the perfect recipe for a sweep of the federal and state governments so long as we can get the younger generations out to vote.
I saw something the other day about a republican strategist saying that it's likely they will lose the house or senate iirc. Trump and company will be the downfall of the republican party. Assuming Biden wins again hopefully we will go after the bullshit hard and put the final nail in that parties coffin. Biden can't order or even suggest anything now because it would not be good optics.
Yeah the last Republican to win both terms by popular vote was Ronald Reagan. The last Republican president to never win without winning the popular vote was George H.W. Bush, and he was so long ago that he campaigned on ending global warming as a Republican.
Heck yes!
I live in a deep red rural area and the MAGA flags and others are out of vogue(granted they were Cheap AF & ruined quickly). I'm not seeing the energy. Even the perennial die-hard "but democrat x bad" have lost their desire to trumpet even a pro-republican slogan. They will vote and most won't change their mind but they are seriously deflated with nothing to rally around with Trump's "retribution only" campaign.
I agree many of the news organizations have changed leadership & most of them are clamoring to get back the audience they had from previously or seeking to "shift tone".
On Saturday I drove from Atlanta to Highlands NC for a funeral. Had to drive thru Deliverance Country - exactly where it was filmed - to get there. I passed a Southern Heritage Museum and Gift Shop with a giant Stars & Bars billboard, and numerous TRUMP 2024 SAVE AMERICA! giant banners.
Thankfully I don't have stickers on my car identifying me as a "librul," and my license tag says Cobb Co which is still a pretty red part of metro ATL but people in those rural areas probably think anyone from "the city" is a "librul".
The Trump garbage is still everywhere, at least here, and it’s not going away. I am happy to hear you’re seeing less of it.
You live in a purple state that MAGA thinks was stolen, so it makes sense that keeps them motivated. I'm talking from a deep red state experience here. They are not gone or banished for sure but have become on par to Southern Heritage territory so checks out.