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this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2023
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We've been hearing this for over a year now but it seems like Russia keeps going. Is Ukraine actually winning?
Russia has orders of a magnitude more fighting age men and resources than Ukraine. If Russian losses are two to one or three to one in a battle it is still a loss for Ukraine. Ukraine just don’t have the population or material to absorb those losses. Ukraine needs to have a 5 or 6 to one ratio to win in a conflict with Russia.
In every past conflict in history Russia traditionally does terrible in the first few years of a conflict and absorbs staggering losses but is able to figure out what works and ultimately wins.
The fact that Ukraine which five or six years ago didn’t have a
functional military is still in this fight is very telling for how bad Russia's military has atrophied after the Cold War.
The front lines have solidified and Russia has shown they can learn to fight defensively. The best Ukraine can do now is perhaps cut off transport routes to Crimea and make the Russian position there untenable. Otherwise unless there is some kind of major revolution in Russia it’s doubtful that Ukraine can retake their lost lands.
However, I still support supplying Ukraine with arms. This is Russia's 9th military invasion of a neighboring country since the end of the Cold War. It won’t be their last unless they are bled dry. Ukraine has the will to fight them, they just need arms.
Though they cannot take land, the Ukrainians are only getting better at dismantling Russian fires capabilities and eliminating enemy units. They are learning too and they are learning where it counts in an attritional fight. War is politics and this conflict will become politically untenable for Russia far earlier than it will for Ukraine.
Both sides learn. Sometime i ask myself if americans believe that the americans and their allies are the only smart people in the world. You have seen too much hollywood movies...
The American military can be open minded. We're just so accustomed to being let down. I have a lot of respect for the French artillery units and Singaporean intelligence among others. I know people scoff at the idea that we are team players but we really are when everyone is working towards the same strategic objective.
I had a long answer, but i agree with you.
Edit: peace
Friends in army. But, trust me, i don't want to fight against americans
Sorry please