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Ukraine F-16 Speculation Mounts as Russia Loses 8 Fighter Jets in 3 Weeks
(www.newsweek.com)
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this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2023
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They probably did the shooting down part, but something has changed. Russian pilots know how low they need to fly and how far away they need to be from the front to be able to launch 2000lb glide bombs at Ukrainian front line positions without being picked up by ground-based radar. And that has been stalling their offensive operations for a long while now. Ukraine didn't extend their air defence by moving it forward. They must have done it by putting something in the air with a radar that can integrate with Western air defence systems. Being in the air instead of on the ground allows radar to see much further towards the horizon and suddenly the air defence can see into the dead area that starts about 30-40km behind enemy lines that the Russian planes have been operating in. This was one of the speculated roles of the F16s in Ukraine, and based on the reports of a sudden and precipitous drop in Russian glide bombing activity at the front due to their planes now being in missile range before they can attack, it wouldn't surprise me if this is what has happened.
No. Ukraine already has access to AWACS which are flying nearby - radars on planes aren't the issue. Those three planes were probably a result of a patriot trap. Patriot has a large range, but turning on the radar means the people you are targetting know to turn back. So Ukraine most likely had shorter range radars right at the frontline, that saw the planes approach from a large distance. To drop the glidebombs and not risk being shot down, they were dropping them 50kms from the frontline. To do that, you need to be very high up - thus visible to everyone. Previously Ukraine knew about those bombers (via the shittier radars), but didn't have a way of shooting at them down without moving the patriot battery away from a city it was protecting.
So the way that most likely happened, was Ukrainians kept the patriot radar off. The planes were lit up on the short range radar they always had. When they were in their drop zone, they turned on the patriot radar and fired when the jets were deep into its firing range and unable to easily turn back and escape.
Well, how do you know. They did exactly that earlier with Patriot battery
From my understanding based on what I have read about the situation with the attacks on front line positions, they would need to move it further towards the enemy by about 10km past their lines to be able to pick up a plane flying just above the treetops to see it when it is within glide bomb launch range. I guess they could have given that a shot, but I am somewhat dubious.
Glide bombs glide on initial inertia. They have to be dropped from the highest possible point at around 15 k meters to get them to fly the furthest. Patriot system can detect them way before that.
Russia has been using low altitude approach and low altitude release with a quick pull up to lob the glide bombs in. The bombs have minimal range and accuracy, so Russia has just been throwing large bombs, and more recently, cluster bombs, to try their luck at hitting and damaging front line infantry positions. What they are doing works, is more effective than their artillery at killing Ukrainians, and has been going on for almost a year now with little to no reprisal from air defence. They aren't going anywhere near 15km high, or forget Patriots, the Buks and S300s that Ukraine is comfortable keeping near enemy lines would hand them their asses.
Probability of F22 sniping Su34s over Zaporozhzhia might be low, but never zero