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I think the Supreme Court is gonna come down on the side of not letting states determine who gets put on the ballot. It’s way too destabilizing (in a “bad for capital” kind of way) because once you open that door every state with a trifecta in state govt is gonna remove the opposing presidential candidate, guaranteed. Well, the GOP will at least.
I think the most likely thing the US supreme Court will say is:
Ah, not so fast, he wasn't convicted. And yeah not everyone in the civil war was convicted but this is the most important guy. You can only do this to presidents who have been convicted. We're even being fair, you see, because Florida or whoever has to put Biden back on the ballot!