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this post was submitted on 04 Jan 2024
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No Stupid Questions
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Recently watched this interesting Gary Stevenson interview.
Not very optimistic but might give you some ideas.
Tl;dr: do everything you can to buy a house and get the rich taxed (much) more.
Do everything you can to buy a house? Don't you suspect the housing market is going to take a dramatic fall within the next few years? That seems like asking people to catch a falling knife.
Tax the wealthy more for sure, but I guess I would suggest keeping powder dry and punching in at some point during the housing market deflation. Else you risk watching your equity dissolve and be worse off for the effort.
The video responds much better than I could. But in short, Gary doesn't believe the housing prices to fall until the rich are taxed more. So get in soon if you can, it's only going to get worse.
Might be wrong, who knows. I'm not able to buy a house currently anyways so I'd have to wait either way.
I watched it, admittedly at 2x speed, and I'm really not sure I agree. It seems a but of a self-fulfilling prophecy that more people trying to buy homes, thereby creating more demand in the housing market, is going up increase the cost of houses, i.e., "getting in while you can" is only likely to increase the difficulties of being able to afford a home, but, I'm not an economist, and he is, so I really don't know. Regardless, interesting video.
I watched it again at 1x, and I feel more convinced. The amount of inflationary pressure average people buying homes is going to cause pales in comparison to the amount caused by the very wealthy using them as investment instruments.
That being said, I'm not sure housing is always going to be the asset of choice for the very wealthy, but, I suppose, it'll always be one of them unless the bottom falls out. Which seems inevitable. Nevertheless, the main idea--tax the rich at way higher rates--is true and always has been true. The real question has always been HOW to get that done.