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Beijing Won’t Allow Taiwan’s Democracy to Survive (www.theatlantic.com)

submitted 1 year ago by MicroWave@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

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The very prospect of a free election is a threat.

On Saturday, voters in Taiwan will head to the polls to choose their next president. The outcome will determine the course of relations between Taiwan and China. But even before the results are in, the very prospect of a free election in Taiwan raises an issue that goes to the core of the seven-decade dispute over the island’s fate.

The mere existence of a successful, democratic, Chinese society in Taiwan is an affront and a challenge to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, as well as to his political and global ambitions. Ultimately, if given the opportunity, Xi will destroy Taiwan’s democracy to eliminate the inherent threat to his vision for China’s future.

“I just don’t see him compromising on somehow allowing Taiwan to be autonomous or be a sort of democracy” that would operate without interference from Beijing, Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told me. “I don’t see how it fits into his worldview.”

A struggle between autocracy and democracy is playing out over the 100-mile strait that separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. And at the moment, a peaceful resolution appears improbable, perhaps even impossible. On one side is a Communist regime determined to assert its power on the world stage as its difficulties mount at home; on the other is a vibrant democratic society that has grown secure in its identity and desperate to preserve its freedom. The scope for agreement between the two is narrowing, and that has made their relations precarious and consequential.

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[-] IWantToFuckSpez@kbin.social 18 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I think China won’t start a physical war with Taiwan since that will mean economic suicide. They will slowly try to take over Taiwan via the inside. Trough subterfuge Xi will try to install its pawns in critical places. We’ve already seen them trying it in Australia, but they were caught because they were too brazen. They’ve probably learned from that and are more careful now. It’s probably going to be a multi generational operation. China has time on their side.

[-] Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world 12 points 1 year ago

Maybe. Xi seems to think he has to do it in his lifetime for legacy making reasons. If the right conditions for all out war present themselves, ie an isolationist America and Taiwan's other allies preoccupied with other conflicts, they'll probably roll those dice. I worry that the number of large wars of invasion could proliferate if the US fails in its 24 election in any way (electing trump or even allowing the results to be called into question).

this post was submitted on 11 Jan 2024

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