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How long til Blu-rays get phased out
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The problem is that the market isn't there to phase them out. Streaming and digital purchases have filled in most of the consumer demand that physical media would. There may not be the market for a Blu-ray replacement the same way there was for DvD.
There is also the question of whether optical media would be the preferred medium. An SD Card may be preferred over an optical drive, especially as it is more space efficient in a lot of different types of devices.