Now that the "official" stuff is out of the way, here are some things to consider:

Maps during similar periods of Earth history have been laughably inaccurate, so we assume that Faerunian cartographers are offering "best estimate" distances. This is supported by real-world evidence. As this enterprising gamer has noted in detail, changes to maps distances have been substantial. Between the old Forgotten Realms Interactive Atlas and the official 5E map, distances are often off by up to 20 miles; it even puts BG as around 17 miles north of the Chionthar!

It goes without saying, but take these map as aids, not as a hard and fast requirement for your own campaign.

So... fudge the distances if you need to; these maps are off by nearly 20 miles in some places! Elturel is 15 miles further east on this old map versus the newer map, for example, and there's a similar distance discrepancy between Trollclaw and Baldur's Gate. So... there's wiggle room, even if you're trying to be 'official.'

For me, I prefer to place Moonrise 15-17 miles west of the Grove. Having it a mere 7 miles away seems a bit too close.

The Grove being 21 miles east of Elturel DOES make sense and is consistent with my original estimates (the 200 miles here is very close to the 200 "by river" I measured before) ; that's between a day and a day and a half of travel on trails through mountainous terrain.