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this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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I think you're right but since large part of the people have been conscripted... Maybe you can call it a revolution as well?
I'd say it could lead to some kind of revolutionary movement, but for that it would be helpful if there was already some kind of organized resistance, which I think is not the case. It's definitely a test of Putin's power and will show how good repression and propaganda have been. I'm afraid it's been good and if there is a shift in power, it will just be new assholes with money and weapons, not a revolution. But we'll see, it's definitely interesting to watch.
If you're interested in resistance movements and when they're likely to succeed, here's a good start: https://fullspectrumresistance.org/
The wagner group and the guys behind it are supposedly even more radical than putin is - if they get in power, the war on Ukraine will get much, much bloodier very quickly.