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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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It could shoot back up when the Strait of Malacca gets blockaded, or when it turns out that major oil production companies depend on Chinese-made equipment, or when Russia collapses and stops selling oil to India because China dropped its military support for them, or any number of other possible knock-on effects.
The exact details are not the important thing in what I was talking about. The point is that China's economic woes will have an effect on you, not what precisely what those effects will be.
And my point is that effects are often deflationary. IE: The great depression dropped the price of goods.
That means when one country has an isolated recession or isolated depression, its something the rest of the world could easily benefit from. Its not all bad. The full effects are extremely unpredictable, and assuming worst-case scenario over-and-over is counterproductive.
Deflation is bad for people too.
While you've argued your way into one partial example of a benefitial effect, you completely lack even remote capacity to properly explain the overall effect of a supposed real estate crisis in China. Spoiler alert: nobody has this capacity. Even the whole Hayward's econ department with all the computers you could give them.
Yet, there's an overwhelming historical evidence: big recessions in key world economies lead to recessions in linked countries. So, I'd say, buckle up.
Japan in the 90s as a counterpoint vs US economy.