I also think the drama will have died down, and even of it didn’t, it would have a limited effect on the IPO by itself. Twitter losing about 2/3 of its value isn’t because people think Elon is a jerk. It’s because he’s killing growth and revenue. If a company can’t trade on its profitability, it has to do so on its KPIs. What I’m saying is that if reddit’s growth was negatively affected by the ham fisted decisions, it’s going to pile negatives on top of already existing negatives.

Basically, I think it was a desperate move but also a terrible idea, not unlike Elon forcing $13B in debt on Twitter and then making up for it via the destruction of verification.

For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the $8, and lose his own advertisers?

Mark 8:36, approximately

I don’t think reddit was positively affected (as of yet) by the decision - otherwise they wouldn’t be doing the outreach stuff. If only 20% of reddit users are creating 80% of the content (a wild ass guess that’s not unreasonable as a starting point), and if those engaged users are more likely to be protesting/leaving, then the aftereffects are going to be showing up over the next two quarters. If spez needed to show a turnaround for the money folks, it needs to be a turnaround and not a “we tried.”

I just think they’re selling into a down market - down for them in particular but also for the industry - and if they IPO under those conditions I don’t think they’ll hold their initial pricing. “Here’s a turd. Do you want to pay a premium for it in case we can polish it?”