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Don't let the corporations tell you otherwise
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So just like you can't prove that none of the pirates would have bought it if pirating didn't exist? But which is more likely, that sales would stay the same or that more people would buy the products if piracy didn't exist?
You're not entitled to the fruit of someone's labor without compensation or their consent, even if you pinky swear that you'll compensate them at a future date.
At face level you would expect that, but a lot of the people I know that pirate do it to that way they can see how the game or movie is and then if they like it they buy it afterward. Game Demos are rarely a thing nowadays and otherwise they just wouldn't have bought it in the first place. Under this scenario they are actually gaining more profit than if they were to heavily combat, but corporations/non-indie studios are shortsighted and would rather chase a fictional lawsuit case then actually make a profit.
I bought one $60+ game that I absolutely hated after 20 minutes. I don't plan on making that mistake again, just anecdotally supporting this theory.
As soon as you release something to the world, you have given up some control over the thing- otherwise, people would have to come to you to see/hear your art, which would limit the profits considerably.
In this case the product is released and people are given access to it under certain conditions agreed to by the creator. We're not talking about fan fiction and the death of the author, stop mixing up debates.
I suppose we should just start throwing people "likely" to do crimes in prison preemptively!? That's not how anything else works. Why would it work like that here?
Likely?
The second you illegally download copyrighted content you're committing a crime. The fact that you intend to potentially buy it at a later date doesn't matter, just like you can't leave a store with a TV and tell them "Don't worry, I promise I'll be back in two years to pay for it!"