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this post was submitted on 08 Feb 2024
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But the challenge isn't that he's not eligible to run in the primary. The challenge is that he's not eligible to run for President. So if they rule that he isn't, and they do it quickly, states will have to leave him off the ballot in September(ish) when early ballots are printed.
If he's eligible to be on the ballot, he's eligible to run for President. There's no mechanism where SCOTUS can say "yes you can run, but we say you can't be sworn in." Their only opening is on the eligibility question, which is a simple yes or no.
It can't be a simple yes or no, though, because the eligibility restriction can be waived. And the amendment says "No person shall ... hold any office", which says nothing about running for office. There's nothing that says that waiver has to come before declaring any candidacy.
I would not put it past them to say something like "He is currently ineligible. If he runs anyway, then Congress can wait to decide to waive it until after the election". Kicking the can as far down the road as possible, in the hopes that Trump loses and none of this is necessary.
The nuance you're missing is that Congress by 2/3rds majority can vote to essentially nullify ineligibility part of the 14th amendment. So he could theoretically get elected and Congress could vote that he could still serve despite leading an insurrection.
Would Congress ever vote on that? Not a chance. But it still leaves open eligibility, which is the issue. If he could be eligible to be president, can he really be kept off the ballot?