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The World’s Population May Peak in Your Lifetime. What Happens Next?
(www.nytimes.com)
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this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2024
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Futurology
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Anything that far out is in a post-Singularity future where all bets are off. Real, self-improving AGI will completely change pretty much everything. It's hard to be too worried about a problem with human choices in the 22nd century when the entire incentive structure of our economy will, by necessity, completely change someone in the intervening years.
I'm hopeful for the post-Singularity world. 2100 may be closer to Star Trek's economy than ours today (ignoring the space stuff, of course). I'm not going to hold my breath on this issue. There are many reasons to expect it to fundamentally change before then.
In the interest of balance, an ai singularity is far far far from a foregone conclusion, in fact has significant theoretical issues that are largely handwaved away by people wanting you to be scared of singularity or to buy into their ai grift.
Sure, but in this context I was mostly thinking about how the Singularity will make significant numbers of hours of work optional for most people. UBI might get us there even sooner. We have enough wealth creation already to support reduced work, if we restructure our economy.
Parenting choices look a lot different when families don't need two people employed to stay afloat.
Productivity gains already haven't done that. Even if a generalized technological singularity, again, a dubious and entirely baseless claim, there's no guarantee that it actually achieve any of what you're describing.
Work to make it happen, don't bet your future on it.
IMHO, a UBI is just an option in the case that all production is made by machines. If a sector of people is still forced to work, they will not accapt it.
Services like nurses or that like may be something other...