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this post was submitted on 13 Feb 2024
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Well it's a backward looking model which explains why it aligns so perfectly with the last 2 recessions. There is certainly value to models like this, and all economic models should be based on data, but it really should show more than 20ish years of history. My guess is that it is only made based on those years, and it doesn't fit the rest of history nearly so well which is why those years are omitted.