The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine (quincyinst.org)

submitted 8 months ago by naturalgasbad@lemmy.ca to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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Conventional wisdom holds that a negotiated end to the Ukraine war is neither possible nor desirable. This belief is false.

It is also extremely dangerous for Ukraine’s future. The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse. Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war. Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.

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[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml 13 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago)

This war is going to end in a negotiation like almost all wars inevitably do and all the extra months of fighting will have been pointless.

[-] FaceDeer@kbin.social 2 points 8 months ago

The fighting is to provide ammunition at the negotiating table. Currently, Russia isn't going to accept any negotiated settlement that requires them to leave Ukrainian territory or return kidnapped Ukranian children, for example. But once Russia's on the ropes there's a better chance of them doing that.

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml 3 points 8 months ago

The NATO alliance will never provide enough aid to put Russia on the ropes. They want the war to continue for as long as possible to hurt Russia.

[-] FaceDeer@kbin.social 3 points 8 months ago

So you think Russia intends to keep on fighting until it conquers Ukraine?

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml 3 points 8 months ago

I think Russia intends on conquering the Donbas region and keeping Crimea, as they have been saying the entire time. How much more of Ukraine they take depends on how negotiations go.

If this war drags on long enough, yeah, they might try to take the whole country.

[-] FaceDeer@kbin.social 5 points 8 months ago

Russia has passed laws annexing Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts. They invaded Kharkiv and made a run for Keiv and Odessa. Their politicians rant about how Poland and the Baltics are next. You really think anyone's going to believe that they did all that to keep some territory that they had already occupied?

[-] queermunist@lemmy.ml 2 points 8 months ago

I just said that as the war drags on Russia is going to conquer more territory - they want their money's worth.

I think if there had been a negotiation in the beginning for the "Russian speaking regions" that Russia would have stopped. Now that it's clear there will never be negotiations they have no incentive to stop, and since its clear the West is getting bored with this war they might as well take as much land as they can. The longer the war drags on the more likely it is they'll just take the whole country.